Pohang Steelers
vs
Gwangju FC
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Pohang Steelers 1–0 Gwangju FC
The model makes it 43% Pohang Steelers, 28% draw, 29% Gwangju FC — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Pohang Steelers 1.51, Gwangju FC 1.14.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Pohang Steelers's rating is built from 73 K League 1 matches and Gwangju FC's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 674 matches.
Key facts
- Pohang Steelers are 9th on 44 points from 35 games; Gwangju FC are 12th on 23 points from 35 games — K League 1, Relegation Group.
- Pohang Steelers have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Bucheon FC 1995.
- Gwangju FC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Jeju United FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Pohang Steelers 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Gwangju FC 1–2 Pohang Steelers.
More K League 1 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC
Has the model earned this number?
Pohang Steelers at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC
Pohang Steelers
K League 1
- D2-2away to Bucheon FC 19958 November 2026
- D1-1Jeju United FC1 November 2026
- D2-2away to Ulsan Hyundai FC24 October 2026
- D0-0FC Anyang18 October 2026
- L0-3away to Incheon United9 October 2026
Gwangju FC
K League 1
- D1-1away to Jeju United FC7 November 2026
- D1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC31 October 2026
- W3-0away to Bucheon FC 199524 October 2026
- L2-3away to Daejeon Citizen18 October 2026
- W4-3Ulsan Hyundai FC11 October 2026
What these results say
- Pohang Steelers did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Pohang Steelers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gwangju FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gwangju FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Gwangju FC.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 35 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 44 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 35 | 3 | 14 | 18 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Pohang Steelers
Chance to finish top of the Championship Group · 5% today
From our K League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC
- 15 August 2026Gwangju FC 1–2 Pohang SteelersK League 1
- 11 July 2026Gwangju FC 0–3 Pohang SteelersK League 1
- 22 April 2026Pohang Steelers 1–0 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 10 August 2025Pohang Steelers 1–0 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 18 May 2025Pohang Steelers 0–1 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 22 March 2025Gwangju FC 2–3 Pohang SteelersK League 1
Leading scorers: Pohang Steelers and Gwangju FC
Pohang Steelers
GoalsAssists
- Juninho Rocha41
Gwangju FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Iredale90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pohang Steelers the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Pohang Steelers against 1.14 for Gwangju FC. Pohang Steelers's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.93 for Gwangju FC.
How the model reaches 43% for Pohang Steelers to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Pohang Steelers to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, Pohang Steelers's ratings add 1 point and Gwangju FC's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage39%+3
- Pohang Steelers's ratings40%+1
- Gwangju FC's ratings43%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Pohang Steelers at home · Gwangju FC away
League matches only, K League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: Pohang Steelers 35, Gwangju FC 35.
Pohang Steelers score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Gwangju FC have let in 17 there.
Gwangju FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Pohang Steelers have let in 13 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Pohang Steelers
- vs SHANGHAI SIPG1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 38%
- at Gimcheon Sangmu FC5 Dec · K League 1win 29%
- at Vissel Kobe10 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 17%
Gwangju FC
- at FC Anyang5 Dec · K League 1win 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.