Gangwon FC
vs
Daejeon Citizen
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Gangwon FC 0–1 Daejeon Citizen
The model makes it 35% Gangwon FC, 28% draw, 37% Daejeon Citizen — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Gangwon FC 1.30, Daejeon Citizen 1.36.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Gangwon FC and Daejeon Citizen are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Gangwon FC's rating is built from 73 K League 1 matches and Daejeon Citizen's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 674 matches.
Key facts
- Gangwon FC are 4th on 51 points from 35 games; Daejeon Citizen are 3rd on 53 points from 35 games — K League 1, Championship Group.
- Gangwon FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Jeonbuk Motors.
- Daejeon Citizen are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Incheon United.
- Last 6 meetings: Gangwon FC 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 23 August 2026, ended Daejeon Citizen 3–0 Gangwon FC.
More K League 1 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen
Has the model earned this number?
Daejeon Citizen at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen
Gangwon FC
K League 1
- W3-2Jeonbuk Motors8 November 2026
- L1-2away to Ulsan Hyundai FC1 November 2026
- D1-1away to FC Seoul24 October 2026
- D1-1Incheon United18 October 2026
- W2-0Bucheon FC 19959 October 2026
Daejeon Citizen
K League 1
- W2-0Incheon United8 November 2026
- D0-0away to Jeonbuk Motors31 October 2026
- W2-1away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC24 October 2026
- W3-2Gwangju FC18 October 2026
- W2-1Jeonbuk Motors9 October 2026
What these results say
- Gangwon FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gangwon FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Gangwon FC.
- Daejeon Citizen went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Daejeon Citizen won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Daejeon Citizen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gangwon FC | 35 | 12 | 15 | 8 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 51 |
| 3 | Daejeon Citizen | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 55 | 41 | +14 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen
- 23 August 2026Daejeon Citizen 3–0 Gangwon FCK League 1
- 12 May 2026Gangwon FC 2–0 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 12 April 2026Daejeon Citizen 0–2 Gangwon FCK League 1
- 22 November 2025Daejeon Citizen 1–1 Gangwon FCK League 1
- 27 September 2025Gangwon FC 0–0 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 19 July 2025Gangwon FC 2–2 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
Leading scorers: Gangwon FC and Daejeon Citizen
Gangwon FC
GoalsAssists
- Mo Jae-Hyeon42
- A. Halaihal40
Daejeon Citizen
GoalsAssists
- Diogo de Oliveira62
- Jeong Jae-Hee41
- M. Ishida41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Daejeon Citizen the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Gangwon FC against 1.36 for Daejeon Citizen. Gangwon FC's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.39 for Daejeon Citizen.
How the model reaches 37% for Daejeon Citizen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Daejeon Citizen to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Gangwon FC's ratings add 1 point and Daejeon Citizen's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage33%−3
- Gangwon FC's ratings34%+1
- Daejeon Citizen's ratings37%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Gangwon FC at home · Daejeon Citizen away
League matches only, K League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: Gangwon FC 35, Daejeon Citizen 35.
Gangwon FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Daejeon Citizen have let in 12 there.
Daejeon Citizen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (18 goals); Gangwon FC have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Gangwon FC
- at Incheon United29 Nov · K League 1win 31%
- vs FC Seoul6 Dec · K League 1win 33%
Daejeon Citizen
- vs Beijing Guoan24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 56%
- at FC Seoul28 Nov · K League 1win 32%
- at Johor Darul Takzim FC1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%
- vs Ulsan Hyundai FC6 Dec · K League 1win 47%
- vs Kashima9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 42%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.