Relegation Group - 36 · 22 November 2026, 05:00 UTC

Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC K League 1 prediction

Gimcheon Stadium, Gimcheon

Our model says: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–0 Jeju United FC

The model makes it 35% Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 31% draw, 34% Jeju United FC — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.15, Jeju United FC 1.11.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

A tight game: Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's rating is built from 73 K League 1 matches and Jeju United FC's from 75, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 674 matches.

Key facts

  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC are 10th on 38 points from 35 games; Jeju United FC are 7th on 48 points from 35 games — K League 1, Relegation Group.
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to FC Anyang.
  • Jeju United FC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Gwangju FC.
  • Last 6 meetings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 22 August 2026, ended Jeju United FC 0–0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.

More K League 1 predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC

46%
Both teams to score
39%
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Gimcheon Sangmu FC win Draw Jeju United FC win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 0–011%
  4. 0–111%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 1–27%
  7. 2–07%

Scores read Gimcheon Sangmu FC first; the other scorelines share the remaining 31%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 35%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

K League 1

  • W1-0FC Anyang7 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Gwangju FC31 October 2026
  • L1-2Daejeon Citizen24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Seoul18 October 2026
  • L0-1FC Anyang10 October 2026

Jeju United FC

K League 1

  • D1-1Gwangju FC7 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Pohang Steelers1 November 2026
  • L1-3away to Incheon United24 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Jeonbuk Motors18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Seoul10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Gimcheon Sangmu FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jeju United FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Jeju United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Jeju United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

K League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Gimcheon Sangmu FC3562093542-738
7Jeju United FC351212114139+248

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Jeju United FC

Chance to finish top of the Championship Group · 69% today

Win 84%
Draw 71%
Defeat 55%

From our K League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC

  • 22 August 2026Jeju United FC 0–0 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
  • 5 July 2026Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–1 Jeju United FCK League 1
  • 18 April 2026Jeju United FC 1–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
  • 26 July 2025Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3–1 Jeju United FCK League 1
  • 17 May 2025Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–1 Jeju United FCK League 1
  • 22 February 2025Jeju United FC 2–3 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1

Leading scorers: Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

GoalsAssists

  • Go Jae-Hyeon53

Jeju United FC

GoalsAssists

  • Emerson Negueba62
  • Lee Kun-Hee41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Gimcheon Sangmu FC Jeju United FC
0.58 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.65
1.35 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.39
1.15 Model expected goals (this match) 1.11

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.11 for Jeju United FC. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.39 for Jeju United FC.

How the model reaches 35% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's ratings take away 1 point and Jeju United FC's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 35%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage39%+3
  3. Both sides at this match's level37%−2
  4. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's ratings36%−1
  5. Jeju United FC's ratings35%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Gimcheon Sangmu FCJeju United FC
35Matches35
6W 20D 9LRecord12W 12D 11L
35 1.0 per gameGoals scored41 1.2 per game
42 1.2 per gameGoals conceded39 1.1 per game
9 of 35Clean sheets11 of 35
10 of 35Failed to score7 of 35
2 of 2Penalties scored4 of 4
67 1.9 per gameYellow cards66 1.9 per game
4Red cards4
4-4-2 25×Usual shape4-4-2 17×

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home · Jeju United FC away

17Played17
2W 10D 5LRecord7W 4D 6L
16–23Goals for – against22–20
3 of 17Clean sheets5 of 17

League matches only, K League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All K League 1 matches this season: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 35, Jeju United FC 35.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scored 4653108
Jeju United FC conceded 3371159

Gimcheon Sangmu FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Jeju United FC have let in 5 there.

Jeju United FC scored 3796710
Gimcheon Sangmu FC conceded 4210798

Jeju United FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Gimcheon Sangmu FC have let in 8 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

  • at Bucheon FC 199528 Nov · K League 1win 39%
  • vs Pohang Steelers5 Dec · K League 1win 40%

Jeju United FC

  • at FC Anyang28 Nov · K League 1win 37%
  • vs Bucheon FC 19955 Dec · K League 1win 49%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.