Guingamp
vs
Rodez
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Guingamp 2–1 Rodez
The model makes it 40% Guingamp, 27% draw, 33% Rodez — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Guingamp 1.53, Rodez 1.34.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Guingamp's rating is built from 46 Ligue 2 matches and Rodez's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 727 matches.
Key facts
- Guingamp are 11th on 14 points from 12 games; Rodez are 13th on 13 points from 12 games — Ligue 2.
- Guingamp have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Dunkerque.
- Rodez have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Clermont Foot.
- Last 6 meetings: Guingamp 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Guingamp 0–0 Rodez.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Guingamp vs Rodez
Has the model earned this number?
Guingamp at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Guingamp vs Rodez
Guingamp
Ligue 2
- L0-3away to Dunkerque6 November 2026
- W3-0Saint Etienne31 October 2026
- W2-0away to Clermont Foot23 October 2026
- L1-2PAU16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Nancy9 October 2026
Rodez
Ligue 2
- L0-1away to Clermont Foot7 November 2026
- W1-0Dunkerque30 October 2026
- W2-1away to Dijon24 October 2026
- L0-3Montpellier19 October 2026
- L0-2away to Saint Etienne10 October 2026
What these results say
- Rodez conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Guingamp | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Rodez | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Guingamp
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today
Rodez
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
From our Ligue 2 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Guingamp vs Rodez
- 28 February 2026Guingamp 0–0 RodezLigue 2
- 12 December 2025Rodez 2–1 GuingampLigue 2
- 17 January 2025Guingamp 3–0 RodezLigue 2
- 13 September 2024Rodez 1–2 GuingampLigue 2
- 23 January 2024Guingamp 3–3 RodezLigue 2
- 11 November 2023Rodez 0–0 GuingampLigue 2
Leading scorers: Guingamp and Rodez
Guingamp
GoalsAssists
- B. Bokangu40
Rodez
GoalsAssists
- I. Baldé50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Guingamp a 0.1% chance of the title and Rodez 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Guingamp v Rodez has moved
First published on 6 Nov at 42% / 27% / 31% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 40% / 27% / 33%: the biggest move is Guingamp's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Guingamp win40%▼ −2
- Draw27%=
- Rodez win33%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guingamp the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Guingamp against 1.34 for Rodez. Guingamp's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.64 for Rodez.
How the model reaches 40% for Guingamp to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Guingamp to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Guingamp's ratings take away 1 point and Rodez's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Guingamp's ratings40%−1
- Rodez's ratings40%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Guingamp at home · Rodez away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
GuingampRodez
Guingamp are 11th after 12 Ligue 2 matches (between 6th and 17th so far); Rodez are 13th after 12 (between 2nd and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Guingamp 12, Rodez 12.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Guingamp
- at Grenoble4 Dec · Ligue 2win 35%
- vs Dijon11 Dec · Ligue 2win 36%
- at Montpellier2 Jan · Ligue 2win 20%
- at Laval15 Jan · Ligue 2win 37%
- vs Nancy22 Jan · Ligue 2win 34%
Rodez
- vs Reims4 Dec · Ligue 2win 32%
- at Boulogne11 Dec · Ligue 2win 30%
- vs RED Star FC 932 Jan · Ligue 2win 41%
- at Sochaux15 Jan · Ligue 2win 38%
- vs Annecy22 Jan · Ligue 2win 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.