The model rates their attack at 1.75× the league average and their defence at 0.72× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better — the model rates them above average at both ends. Next they host Spain in the UEFA Nations League on 26 September 2026, a match the model gives them 32%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Next match: England vs Spain
England host Spain on 26 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. The model makes it 32% England, 29% draw and 39% Spain, with a most likely scoreline of 1-2. It projects 1.30 expected goals for England against 1.56. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Full preview and model analysis for England vs Spain