Bournemouth
vs
Leeds
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Bournemouth 1–2 Leeds
The model makes it 35% Bournemouth, 28% draw, 37% Leeds — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Bournemouth 1.35, Leeds 1.40.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Bournemouth and Leeds are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Bournemouth are 19th on 3 points from 6 games; Leeds are 8th on 9 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Bournemouth have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Chelsea.
- Leeds have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Arsenal.
- Last 6 meetings: Leeds 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 April 2026, ended Bournemouth 2–2 Leeds.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bournemouth vs Leeds
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leeds at 37% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 3,012 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bournemouth vs Leeds
Bournemouth
- L1-5away to Chelsea10 October 2026
- L0-1Liverpool20 September 2026
- D2-2Brentford12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Newcastle5 September 2026
- D1-1Everton29 August 2026
Leeds
- L1-2away to Arsenal10 October 2026
- D0-0Crystal Palace20 September 2026
- W4-1Newcastle14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Brighton5 September 2026
- D1-1Brentford30 August 2026
What these results say
- Bournemouth did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bournemouth conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bournemouth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leeds failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leeds scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leeds conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 |
| 8 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bournemouth
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 23% today
Leeds
Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Leeds
Bournemouth and Leeds have met 6 times in the records we hold, Leeds has won 3 of them to Bournemouth's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 2–2 at Bournemouth on 22 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 1 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 |
| Leeds | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 12 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 25 goals, an average of 4.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 22 Apr 2026
Premier LeagueBournemouth 2–2 Leeds - 27 Sep 2025
Premier LeagueLeeds 2–2 Bournemouth - 30 Apr 2023
Premier LeagueBournemouth 4–1 Leeds - 5 Nov 2022
Premier LeagueLeeds 4–3 Bournemouth - 20 Jan 2015
ChampionshipLeeds 1–0 Bournemouth - 16 Sep 2014
ChampionshipBournemouth 1–3 Leeds
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 1.03 | 1.02 |
| Leeds | 0.99 | 0.82 |
Leading scorers: Bournemouth and Leeds
Bournemouth
GoalsAssists
- M. Tavernier30
Leeds
GoalsAssists
- D. Calvert-Lewin21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bournemouth carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.95 for Leeds. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Bournemouth and 1.40 for Leeds. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bournemouth rate 1.03 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Leeds rate 0.99 and 0.82.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bournemouth a 0% chance of the title and Leeds 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leeds the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Bournemouth against 1.40 for Leeds. Bournemouth's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/0.82 for Leeds.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bournemouth at home · Leeds away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Bournemouth 6, Leeds 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Bournemouth
- at Sparta Praha5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 24%
- at Ipswich8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
Leeds
- vs Tottenham7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- at Chelsea21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- vs Coventry28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.