Aston Villa
vs
Fulham
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Aston Villa 1–0 Fulham
The model makes it 49% Aston Villa, 27% draw, 24% Fulham — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.71, Fulham 1.05.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Aston Villa: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Aston Villa are 17th on 5 points from 6 games; Fulham are 15th on 5 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Newcastle.
- Fulham have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Hull City.
- Last 6 meetings: Aston Villa 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Fulham 1–0 Aston Villa.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aston Villa vs Fulham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aston Villa at 49% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 1,804 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aston Villa vs Fulham
Aston Villa
- W1-0away to Newcastle17 October 2026
- D2-2Brentford10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Tottenham19 September 2026
- L1-2Nottingham Forest12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hull City5 September 2026
Fulham
- W1-0Hull City17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Ipswich10 October 2026
- D1-1Manchester United20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Liverpool12 September 2026
- L2-3Crystal Palace5 September 2026
What these results say
- Aston Villa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fulham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fulham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 | Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aston Villa vs Fulham
Aston Villa and Fulham have met 6 times in the records we hold, Aston Villa has won 5 of them to Fulham's 1.
The record
Fulham won the last one 1–0 on 25 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 |
| Fulham | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 12 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Apr 2026
Premier LeagueFulham 1–0 Aston Villa - 28 Sep 2025
Premier LeagueAston Villa 3–1 Fulham - 3 May 2025
Premier LeagueAston Villa 1–0 Fulham - 19 Oct 2024
Premier LeagueFulham 1–3 Aston Villa - 17 Feb 2024
Premier LeagueFulham 1–2 Aston Villa - 12 Nov 2023
Premier LeagueAston Villa 3–1 Fulham
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1.20 | 0.91 |
| Fulham | 0.83 | 0.89 |
The two sides
Aston Villa carry a model rating of 6.99 against 6.83 for Fulham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Aston Villa and 1.05 for Fulham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aston Villa rate 1.20 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fulham rate 0.83 and 0.89.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Fulham, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aston Villa a 0.1% chance of the title and Fulham 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aston Villa the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Aston Villa against 1.05 for Fulham. Aston Villa's attack/defence rating is 1.2/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/0.89 for Fulham.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aston Villa at home · Fulham away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Aston Villa 6, Fulham 6.
Fulham score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Aston Villa have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Aston Villa
- at Barcelona3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 13%
- at Manchester United8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- vs Sunderland21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 52%
Fulham
- vs Newcastle7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Manchester City21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 13%
- vs Bournemouth29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at Tottenham2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.