BSC Young Boys
vs
FC Thun
Super League prediction
Our model says: BSC Young Boys 3–1 FC Thun
The model makes it 64% BSC Young Boys, 17% draw, 19% FC Thun — fair odds of 1.56, 5.88 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (6%).
Expected goals: BSC Young Boys 3.62, FC Thun 1.90.
Both teams to score: 83%. Over 2.5 goals: 91%, under 2.5: 9%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to BSC Young Boys: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. BSC Young Boys's rating is built from 51 Swiss Super League matches and FC Thun's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 538 matches.
Key facts
- BSC Young Boys are 2nd on 28 points from 13 games; FC Thun are 8th on 14 points from 13 games — Super League.
- BSC Young Boys have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to FC Luzern.
- FC Thun have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to FC Basel 1893.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended FC Thun 0–6 BSC Young Boys.
More Swiss Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun
Has the model earned this number?
BSC Young Boys at 64%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun
BSC Young Boys
Super League
- W3-2away to FC Luzern7 November 2026
- L3-5FC Zurich1 November 2026
- W2-0FC St. Gallen24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Grasshoppers11 October 2026
- W3-2Servette FC19 September 2026
FC Thun
Super League
- D3-3FC Basel 18938 November 2026
- W5-4away to Lausanne1 November 2026
- L2-3FC Lugano25 October 2026
- L2-4away to FC Zurich10 October 2026
- W2-1away to FC Vaduz20 September 2026
What these results say
- BSC Young Boys scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- BSC Young Boys won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Thun scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Thun conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Thun had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Switzerland Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 41 | 25 | +16 | 28 |
| 8 | FC Thun | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 37 | -10 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
BSC Young Boys
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 10% today
FC Thun
Chance to finish in the top six · 19% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun
- 1 August 2026FC Thun 0–6 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 14 May 2026FC Thun 3–8 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 8 March 2026BSC Young Boys 1–2 FC ThunSuper League
- 25 January 2026FC Thun 4–1 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 28 September 2025BSC Young Boys 4–2 FC ThunSuper League
- 28 June 2024BSC Young Boys 0–2 FC ThunFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: BSC Young Boys and FC Thun
BSC Young Boys
GoalsAssists
- S. Essende153
- C. Fassnacht61
- A. Sanches44
FC Thun
GoalsAssists
- B. Labeau61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives BSC Young Boys a 9.6% chance of the title and FC Thun 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives BSC Young Boys the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.62 expected goals for BSC Young Boys against 1.90 for FC Thun. BSC Young Boys's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.88 for FC Thun.
How the model reaches 64% for BSC Young Boys to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for BSC Young Boys to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 4 points, BSC Young Boys's ratings add 8 points and FC Thun's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 64%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Both sides at this match's level47%+4
- BSC Young Boys's ratings55%+8
- FC Thun's ratings64%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
BSC Young Boys at home · FC Thun away
League matches only, Super League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
BSC Young BoysFC Thun
BSC Young Boys are 2nd after 13 Super League matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); FC Thun are 8th after 13 (between 1st and 10th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: BSC Young Boys 13, FC Thun 13.
FC Thun score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); BSC Young Boys have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
BSC Young Boys
- at FC Sion29 Nov · Super Leaguewin 30%
- at FC Vaduz5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 48%
- vs Lausanne12 Dec · Super Leaguewin 69%
- at Servette FC20 Dec · Super Leaguewin 39%
- vs FC Lugano16 Jan · Super Leaguewin 37%
FC Thun
- at Ajax26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 7%
- vs FC St. Gallen29 Nov · Super Leaguewin 36%
- vs FC Luzern5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 45%
- vs Gent10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 20%
- at FC Lugano13 Dec · Super Leaguewin 15%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.