4 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Sparta Praha vs Lyon UEFA Champions League prediction & result

epet ARENA, Prague
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Sparta Praha 2-1 Lyon.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Sparta Praha, 27% draw, 34% Lyon — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Lyon v Sparta Praha, 11 Aug →

Lyon went through 4–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sparta Praha at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Jonatan Braut Brunes
20'
45'
⚽M. Suchomel (OG)
⚽M. Rynesassist: A. Irving
63'
Adam Karabec
66'
67'
⚽Corentin Tolisso (pen)
⚽J. Mercadoassist: M. Rynes
69'
🔁A. Irvingout: S. Eneme
75'
75'
🔁M. de Carvalhoout: M. Fofana
75'
🔁M. Ouedraogoout: E. Nuamah
🔁J. Alcocerout: L. Haraslin
84'
🔁J. Brunesout: E. Singhateh
85'
🔁A. Karabecout: H. Sochurek
85'
Matěj Ryneš
90+4'
🔁J. Mercadoout: G. Kuol
90+2'

Match stats — Sparta Praha vs Lyon

52%Possession48%
9Shots11
3On target4
6Corners9

Line-ups

Sparta Praha 4-2-3-1
  • 44J. SurovcikG
  • 2M. SuchomelD
  • 19A. SevinskyD
  • 25A. SorensenD
  • 11M. RynesD
  • 28R. MacekM
  • 18A. IrvingM
  • 17J. MercadoM
  • 10A. KarabecM
  • 7J. AlcocerM
  • 14J. BrunesF
Substitutes
  • 47K. HegyiG
  • 3P. KaderabekD
  • 22L. HaraslinM
  • 5S. EnemeM
  • 29M. VojtaF
  • 24D. HollyM
  • 36G. KuolM
  • 27E. SinghatehM
  • 30J. ZelenyD
Coach: Brian Priske
Lyon 3-4-3
  • 1D. GreifG
  • 22C. MataD
  • 6T. TessmannD
  • 21R. KluivertD
  • 98A. Maitland-NilesM
  • 23T. MortonM
  • 39M. de CarvalhoM
  • 76M. OuedraogoM
  • 16Abner ViniciusF
  • 17L. OpendaF
  • 8C. TolissoF
Substitutes
  • 40R. DescampsG
  • 30Y. KonanG
  • 11M. FofanaF
  • 7E. NuamahF
  • 26K. BoudacheF
  • 45R. HimbertF
  • 5O. MangalaM
  • 24J. DuranvilleF
  • 99N. NarteyM
Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Form going into Sparta Praha vs Lyon

Sparta Praha

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1Zlin31 July 2026
  • L1-3away to Zbrojovka Brno25 July 2026

Lyon

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Sparta Praha vs Lyon

  • 4 November 2021Lyon 3–0 Sparta PrahaUEFA Europa League
  • 21 October 2021Sparta Praha 3–4 LyonUEFA Europa League

The result against the call

Sparta Praha beat Lyon 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Sparta Praha at 39%. The goals: M. Suchomel (own goal) 45' for Lyon, M. Rynes 63' for Sparta Praha, J. Mercado 69' for Sparta Praha.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.