4 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Sparta Praha vs Lyon UEFA Champions League prediction & result

epet ARENA, Prague
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Sparta Praha 2-1 Lyon.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Sparta Praha, 27% draw, 34% Lyon — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sparta Praha at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Jonatan Braut Brunes
20'
45'
⚽M. Suchomel (OG)
⚽M. Rynesassist: A. Irving
63'
Adam Karabec
66'
67'
⚽Corentin Tolisso (pen)
⚽J. Mercadoassist: M. Rynes
69'
🔁A. Irvingout: S. Eneme
75'
75'
🔁M. de Carvalhoout: M. Fofana
75'
🔁M. Ouedraogoout: E. Nuamah
🔁J. Alcocerout: L. Haraslin
84'
🔁J. Brunesout: E. Singhateh
85'
🔁A. Karabecout: H. Sochurek
85'
Matěj Ryneš
90+4'
🔁J. Mercadoout: G. Kuol
90+2'

Match stats — Sparta Praha vs Lyon

52%Possession48%
9Shots11
3On target4
6Corners9

Line-ups

Sparta Praha 4-2-3-1
  • 44J. SurovcikG
  • 2M. SuchomelD
  • 19A. SevinskyD
  • 25A. SorensenD
  • 11M. RynesD
  • 28R. MacekM
  • 18A. IrvingM
  • 17J. MercadoM
  • 10A. KarabecM
  • 7J. AlcocerM
  • 14J. BrunesF
Substitutes
  • 47K. HegyiG
  • 3P. KaderabekD
  • 22L. HaraslinM
  • 5S. EnemeM
  • 29M. VojtaF
  • 24D. HollyM
  • 36G. KuolM
  • 27E. SinghatehM
  • 30J. ZelenyD
Coach: Brian Priske
Lyon 3-4-3
  • 1D. GreifG
  • 22C. MataD
  • 6T. TessmannD
  • 21R. KluivertD
  • 98A. Maitland-NilesM
  • 23T. MortonM
  • 39M. de CarvalhoM
  • 76M. OuedraogoM
  • 16Abner ViniciusF
  • 17L. OpendaF
  • 8C. TolissoF
Substitutes
  • 40R. DescampsG
  • 30Y. KonanG
  • 11M. FofanaF
  • 7E. NuamahF
  • 26K. BoudacheF
  • 45R. HimbertF
  • 5O. MangalaM
  • 24J. DuranvilleF
  • 99N. NarteyM
Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Form going into Sparta Praha vs Lyon

Sparta Praha

  • W3-1Zlin31 July 2026
  • L1-3away to Zbrojovka Brno25 July 2026

Lyon

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Sparta Praha and Lyon in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
9Sparta PrahaCzech Liga84041512+312
4LyonLigue 1422062+48

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Czech Liga · Ligue 1

Head-to-head: Sparta Praha vs Lyon

  • 4 November 2021Lyon 3–0 Sparta PrahaUEFA Europa League
  • 21 October 2021Sparta Praha 3–4 LyonUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Sparta Praha and Lyon

Sparta Praha

  • J. Alcócer4 goals1 assists
  • J. Mercado3 goals1 assists

Lyon

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.