UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round · 4 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Sparta Praha vs Lyon

epet ARENA, Prague

The model makes it 39% Sparta Praha, 27% draw, 34% Lyon — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Sparta Praha 1.43, Lyon 1.33.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: Low.

Model insights

57%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%2-1 9%1-0 8%

Head-to-head: Sparta Praha vs Lyon

  • 4 November 2021Lyon 3–0 Sparta PrahaUEFA Europa League
  • 21 October 2021Sparta Praha 3–4 LyonUEFA Europa League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Sparta Praha against 1.33 for Lyon. Sparta Praha's attack/defence rating is 0.78/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.97 for Lyon.