Dinamo Minsk
vs
Neftchi Baku
Final score: Dinamo Minsk 0-1 Neftchi Baku.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Dinamo Minsk, 26% draw, 28% Neftchi Baku — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dinamo Minsk 1.61, Neftchi Baku 1.22.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku
- 30 July 2026Dinamo Minsk 0–1 Neftchi BakuUEFA Europa Conference League
- 22 July 2026Neftchi Baku 2–4 Dinamo MinskUEFA Europa Conference League
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Minsk the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Dinamo Minsk against 1.22 for Neftchi Baku. Dinamo Minsk's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.61 for Neftchi Baku.