Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Dinamo Minsk 0-1 Neftchi Baku.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Dinamo Minsk, 26% draw, 30% Neftchi Baku — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
The tie
Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Neftchi Baku 2–4 Dinamo Minsk (22 Jul) →
Dinamo Minsk went through 4–3 on aggregate.
All Conference League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Minsk at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1I. ShimakovichG
- 44G. GurbanD
- 12A. IvanovD
- 26V. KalininD
- 25A. ToureD
- 8A. SelyavaM
- 78A. SokolovskiyM
- 42F. AbdullahiM
- 30M. DjimetF
- 10K. VardanyanF
- 7E. MalashevichM
- 21D. RadkevichG
- 3M. ShvetsovD
- 5D. Dushevskiy
- 9A. LutskovichF
- 11G. AlykulovM
- 13V. PolozM
- 23A. ZhechkoM
- 24A. VakulichD
- 27M. AleksandrovD
- 1E. BalayevG
- 77F. SackoD
- 55A. GravillonD
- 17M. Khachayev
- 3R. AbbasovM
- 20Gustavo KlismahnM
- 18I. MathewM
- 8E. MahmudovM
- 33Breno AlmeidaM
- 29L. TuptaF
- 11I. FarajM
- 13K. PiricG
- 4E. CamalovM
- 5Igor RibeiroD
- 7E. Safarov
- 14E. BadalovD
- 19A. SalyanskiyF
- 82M. MammadliD
- 6S. D'AlmeidaM
- 24M. SeckD
Form going into Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku
Dinamo Minsk
All competitions we cover
- W4-2away to Neftchi Baku22 July 2026
Neftchi Baku
All competitions we cover
- L2-4Dinamo Minsk22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Dinamo Minsk and Neftchi Baku in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Minsk | Premier League | 26 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 50 | 22 | +28 | 58 |
| 2 | Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 18 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Premier League · Premyer Liqa
Head-to-head: Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku
- 22 July 2026Neftchi Baku 2–4 Dinamo MinskUEFA Europa Conference League
The result against the call
Neftchi Baku won 1–0 at Dinamo Minsk. The model had leaned towards a win for Dinamo Minsk at 44% and given a win for Neftchi Baku 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Breno Almeida 12' for Neftchi Baku. Sent off: Falaye Sacko (Neftchi Baku) 90+4'.