30 July 2026, 17:00 UTC

Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Stadion Beroe, Stara Zagora
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Dinamo Minsk 0-1 Neftchi Baku.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Dinamo Minsk, 26% draw, 30% Neftchi Baku — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dinamo Minsk at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Minsk0%Draw5%Neftchi Baku95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽Breno Almeida
Artem Sokolovskiy
24'
30'
Andreaw Gravillon
58'
🔁L. Tuptaout: B. Sambou
🔁A. Sokolovskiyout: A. Zhechko
66'
🔁K. Vardanyanout: L. Gweth
66'
74'
🔁Breno Almeidaout: E. Safarov
74'
🔁I. Mathewout: S. D'Almeida
🔁G. Gurbanout: M. Shvetsov
83'
🔁M. Djimetout: G. Alykulov
83'
86'
🔁E. Mahmudovout: Igor Ribeiro
Leonard Chatelin Gweth
88'
90+4'
Falaye Sacko
🔁E. Malashevichout: R. Begunov
90+1'

Line-ups

Dinamo Minsk 4-3-3
  • 1I. ShimakovichG
  • 44G. GurbanD
  • 12A. IvanovD
  • 26V. KalininD
  • 25A. ToureD
  • 8A. SelyavaM
  • 78A. SokolovskiyM
  • 42F. AbdullahiM
  • 30M. DjimetF
  • 10K. VardanyanF
  • 7E. MalashevichM
Substitutes
  • 21D. RadkevichG
  • 3M. ShvetsovD
  • 5D. Dushevskiy
  • 9A. LutskovichF
  • 11G. AlykulovM
  • 13V. PolozM
  • 23A. ZhechkoM
  • 24A. VakulichD
  • 27M. AleksandrovD
Coach: Aleksandr Shagoyko
Neftchi Baku 4-3-3
  • 1E. BalayevG
  • 77F. SackoD
  • 55A. GravillonD
  • 17M. Khachayev
  • 3R. AbbasovM
  • 20Gustavo KlismahnM
  • 18I. MathewM
  • 8E. MahmudovM
  • 33Breno AlmeidaM
  • 29L. TuptaF
  • 11I. FarajM
Substitutes
  • 13K. PiricG
  • 4E. CamalovM
  • 5Igor RibeiroD
  • 7E. Safarov
  • 14E. BadalovD
  • 19A. SalyanskiyF
  • 82M. MammadliD
  • 6S. D'AlmeidaM
  • 24M. SeckD
Coach: Yuri Vernidub

Form going into Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku

Dinamo Minsk

  • W4-2away to Neftchi Baku22 July 2026

Neftchi Baku

  • L2-4Dinamo Minsk22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku

  • 30 July 2026Dinamo Minsk 0–1 Neftchi BakuUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 22 July 2026Neftchi Baku 2–4 Dinamo MinskUEFA Europa Conference League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.