22 July 2026, 16:00 UTC

Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Neftçi Arena, Baku
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Neftchi Baku 2-4 Dinamo Minsk.

Before kick-off the model made it 75% Neftchi Baku, 16% draw, 9% Dinamo Minsk — fair odds of 1.33, 6.25 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Neftchi Baku at 75% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Mahmudovassist: Gustavo Klismahn
2'
⚽A. Selyava (OG)
8'
36'
⚽K. Vardanyanassist: E. Malashevich
45+2'
Fawaz Abdullahi
🔁E. Balayevout: R. Cafarov
46'
47'
⚽E. Malashevichassist: K. Vardanyan
Falaye Sacko
54'
57'
⚽K. Vardanyanassist: M. Djimet
59'
🔁A. Zhechkoout: A. Sokolovskiy
🔁M. Seckout: R. Abbasov
60'
🔁E. Mahmudovout: I. Mathew
60'
🔁S. D'Almeidaout: E. Safarov
60'
🔁Breno Almeidaout: B. Sambou
66'
73'
🔁M. Djimetout: G. Alykulov
73'
🔁K. Vardanyanout: L. Gweth
77'
⚽Gulzhigit Alykulov (pen)
77'
⚽G. Alykulov
90+2'
🔁A. Toureout: A. Vakulich

Line-ups

Neftchi Baku 4-3-3
  • 1Emil BalayevG
  • 77Falaye SackoD
  • 55Andreaw GravillonD
  • 5IgorD
  • 24Moustapha SeckD
  • 20Gustavo KlismahnM
  • 6Sessi D'AlmeidaM
  • 8Emin MahmudovM
  • 33Breno AlmeidaM
  • 29Lubomir TuptaF
  • 11Imad FarajM
Substitutes
  • 93Rza CəfərovG
  • 3Rüfat AbbasovM
  • 7Emil SafarovM
  • 18Ifeanyi MathewM
  • 97Bassala SambouF
  • 13Kenan PirićG
  • 14Elvin BadalovD
  • 17Murad KhachayevD
  • 80Aslan ShirinovD
Coach: Yuri Vernidub
Dinamo Minsk 4-3-3
  • 1Ivan ShimakovichG
  • 44Gleb GurbanD
  • 12Aleksey IvanovD
  • 26Vladislav KalininD
  • 25Abdoul Aziz ToureD
  • 23Aleksey ZhechkoM
  • 8Aleksandr SelyavaM
  • 42Fawaz AbdullahiM
  • 30Moustapha DjimetF
  • 10Karen VardanyanF
  • 7Yevgeniy MalashevichM
Substitutes
  • 78Artem SokolovskiyM
  • 11Gulzhigit AlykulovM
  • 80Leonard Chatelin GwethF
  • 24Aleksey VakulichD
  • 21Danila RadkevichG
  • 3Maksim ShvetsovD
  • 27Mikhail AleksandrovD
  • 2Matsvei DubatoukaD
  • 5Daniil DushevskiyM
Coach: Aleksandr Shagoyko

Head-to-head: Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk

  • 22 July 2026Neftchi Baku 2–4 Dinamo MinskUEFA Europa Conference League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.