22 July 2026, 16:00 UTC

Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Neftçi Arena, Baku
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Neftchi Baku 2-4 Dinamo Minsk.

Before kick-off the model made it 75% Neftchi Baku, 16% draw, 9% Dinamo Minsk — fair odds of 1.33, 6.25 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Dinamo Minsk v Neftchi Baku, 30 Jul →

Dinamo Minsk went through 4–3 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Neftchi Baku at 75% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Mahmudovassist: Gustavo Klismahn
2'
⚽A. Selyava (OG)
8'
36'
⚽K. Vardanyanassist: E. Malashevich
45+2'
Fawaz Abdullahi
🔁E. Balayevout: R. Cafarov
46'
47'
⚽E. Malashevichassist: K. Vardanyan
Falaye Sacko
54'
57'
⚽K. Vardanyanassist: M. Djimet
59'
🔁A. Zhechkoout: A. Sokolovskiy
🔁M. Seckout: R. Abbasov
60'
🔁E. Mahmudovout: I. Mathew
60'
🔁S. D'Almeidaout: E. Safarov
60'
🔁Breno Almeidaout: B. Sambou
66'
73'
🔁M. Djimetout: G. Alykulov
73'
🔁K. Vardanyanout: L. Gweth
77'
⚽Gulzhigit Alykulov (pen)
77'
⚽G. Alykulov
90+2'
🔁A. Toureout: A. Vakulich

Line-ups

Neftchi Baku 4-3-3
  • 1Emil BalayevG
  • 77Falaye SackoD
  • 55Andreaw GravillonD
  • 5IgorD
  • 24Moustapha SeckD
  • 20Gustavo KlismahnM
  • 6Sessi D'AlmeidaM
  • 8Emin MahmudovM
  • 33Breno AlmeidaM
  • 29Lubomir TuptaF
  • 11Imad FarajM
Substitutes
  • 93Rza CəfərovG
  • 3Rüfat AbbasovM
  • 7Emil SafarovM
  • 18Ifeanyi MathewM
  • 97Bassala SambouF
  • 13Kenan PirićG
  • 14Elvin BadalovD
  • 17Murad KhachayevD
  • 80Aslan ShirinovD
Coach: Yuri Vernidub
Dinamo Minsk 4-3-3
  • 1Ivan ShimakovichG
  • 44Gleb GurbanD
  • 12Aleksey IvanovD
  • 26Vladislav KalininD
  • 25Abdoul Aziz ToureD
  • 23Aleksey ZhechkoM
  • 8Aleksandr SelyavaM
  • 42Fawaz AbdullahiM
  • 30Moustapha DjimetF
  • 10Karen VardanyanF
  • 7Yevgeniy MalashevichM
Substitutes
  • 78Artem SokolovskiyM
  • 11Gulzhigit AlykulovM
  • 80Leonard Chatelin GwethF
  • 24Aleksey VakulichD
  • 21Danila RadkevichG
  • 3Maksim ShvetsovD
  • 27Mikhail AleksandrovD
  • 2Matsvei DubatoukaD
  • 5Daniil DushevskiyM
Coach: Aleksandr Shagoyko

Neftchi Baku and Dinamo Minsk in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
2Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa9531229+1318
1Dinamo MinskPremier League2618445022+2858

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Premyer Liqa · Premier League

The result against the call

Dinamo Minsk won 4–2 at Neftchi Baku. The model had leaned towards a win for Neftchi Baku at 75% and given a win for Dinamo Minsk 9%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 11 matches like this one. The goals: E. Mahmudov 2' for Neftchi Baku, A. Selyava (own goal) 8' for Neftchi Baku, K. Vardanyan 36' for Dinamo Minsk, E. Malashevich 47' for Dinamo Minsk, K. Vardanyan 57' for Dinamo Minsk, G. Alykulov 77' for Dinamo Minsk.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.