30 July 2026, 18:00 UTC

Vestri vs Rīgas FS UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

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Final score: Vestri 1-1 Rīgas FS.

Before kick-off the model made it 20% Vestri, 21% draw, 59% Rīgas FS — fair odds of 5.00, 4.76 and 1.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Rīgas FS 4–1 Vestri (23 Jul) →

Rīgas FS went through 5–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rīgas FS at 59% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vestri3%Draw91%Rīgas FS6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽T. G. Hafthorsson
12'
16'
⚽M. Syllaassist: S. Panic
35'
Stefan Panić
46'
🔁M. Kigursout: D. Lemajic
Édson
54'
🔁T. Pheteout: C. Morfelt
61'
🔁G. Einarssonout: S. Fall
61'
64'
🔁R. Ndjikiout: N. Dusalijevs
🔁G. Haukssonout: J. Stensson
68'
73'
🔁M. Syllaout: K. Emenike
74'
Žiga Lipušček
🔁T. G. Hafthorssonout: M. Hagbardsson
75'
🔁B. Hermannssonout: E. Duah
75'
90+1'
🔁D. Zelenkovsout: N. Sliede

Line-ups

Vestri
  • 1M. SteinarssonG
  • 22E. GardarssonD
  • 12T. PheteD
  • 3Edson Eduardo
  • 15G. SvavarssonD
  • 14B. EydalD
  • 17G. HaukssonM
  • 45G. EinarssonD
  • 10T. G. HafthorssonM
  • 23B. HermannssonM
  • 11J. SelvenM
Substitutes
  • 33B. SnaedalG
  • 4F. GbadamosiM
  • 6I. BaldeM
  • 7J. StenssonM
  • 13A. JohannssonM
  • 18M. HagbardssonD
  • 19E. DuahM
  • 27C. MorfeltM
  • 77S. FallD
Rīgas FS 4-2-3-1
  • 16J. NerugalsG
  • 6A. FilipovicD
  • 23H. PrengaD
  • 43Z. LipuscekD
  • 18D. ZelenkovsM
  • 81S. RakicM
  • 26S. PanicM
  • 10J. IkaunieksM
  • 49M. KigursM
  • 14M. SyllaM
  • 15R. NdjikiF
Substitutes
  • 1R. MatrevicsG
  • 40M. MuizzemnieksG
  • 4R. VeipsD
  • 5N. SliedeD
  • 8L. OdishariaM
  • 22D. LemajicF
  • 20K. EmenikeF
  • 21N. DusalijevsM
Coach: Viktors Morozs

Form going into Vestri vs Rīgas FS

Vestri

All competitions we cover

  • L1-4away to Rīgas FS23 July 2026

Rīgas FS

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1Vestri23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Vestri vs Rīgas FS

  • 23 July 2026Rīgas FS 4–1 VestriUEFA Europa Conference League

The result against the call

Vestri and Rīgas FS drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Rīgas FS at 59% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: T. G. Hafthorsson 12' for Vestri, M. Sylla 16' for Rīgas FS.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.