30 July 2026, 18:00 UTC

Vestri vs Rīgas FS UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

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Final score: Vestri 1-1 Rīgas FS.

Before kick-off the model made it 20% Vestri, 21% draw, 59% Rīgas FS — fair odds of 5.00, 4.76 and 1.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rīgas FS at 59% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vestri3%Draw91%Rīgas FS6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽T. G. Hafthorsson
12'
16'
⚽M. Syllaassist: S. Panic
35'
Stefan Panić
46'
🔁M. Kigursout: D. Lemajic
Édson
54'
🔁T. Pheteout: C. Morfelt
61'
🔁G. Einarssonout: S. Fall
61'
64'
🔁R. Ndjikiout: N. Dusalijevs
🔁G. Haukssonout: J. Stensson
68'
73'
🔁M. Syllaout: K. Emenike
74'
Žiga Lipušček
🔁T. G. Hafthorssonout: M. Hagbardsson
75'
🔁B. Hermannssonout: E. Duah
75'
90+1'
🔁D. Zelenkovsout: N. Sliede

Line-ups

Vestri
  • 1M. SteinarssonG
  • 22E. GardarssonD
  • 12T. PheteD
  • 3Edson Eduardo
  • 15G. SvavarssonD
  • 14B. EydalD
  • 17G. HaukssonM
  • 45G. EinarssonD
  • 10T. G. HafthorssonM
  • 23B. HermannssonM
  • 11J. SelvenM
Substitutes
  • 33B. SnaedalG
  • 4F. GbadamosiM
  • 6I. BaldeM
  • 7J. StenssonM
  • 13A. JohannssonM
  • 18M. HagbardssonD
  • 19E. DuahM
  • 27C. MorfeltM
  • 77S. FallD
Rīgas FS 4-2-3-1
  • 16J. NerugalsG
  • 6A. FilipovicD
  • 23H. PrengaD
  • 43Z. LipuscekD
  • 18D. ZelenkovsM
  • 81S. RakicM
  • 26S. PanicM
  • 10J. IkaunieksM
  • 49M. KigursM
  • 14M. SyllaM
  • 15R. NdjikiF
Substitutes
  • 1R. MatrevicsG
  • 40M. MuizzemnieksG
  • 4R. VeipsD
  • 5N. SliedeD
  • 8L. OdishariaM
  • 22D. LemajicF
  • 20K. EmenikeF
  • 21N. DusalijevsM
Coach: Viktors Morozs

Form going into Vestri vs Rīgas FS

Vestri

  • L1-4away to Rīgas FS23 July 2026

Rīgas FS

  • W4-1Vestri23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Vestri vs Rīgas FS

  • 30 July 2026Vestri 1–1 Rīgas FSUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 23 July 2026Rīgas FS 4–1 VestriUEFA Europa Conference League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.