UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round · 30 July 2026, 18:00 UTC

Vestri vs Rīgas FS

Kerecis Stadium - artificial grass

The model makes it 21% Vestri, 21% draw, 58% Rīgas FS — fair odds of 4.76, 4.76 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).

Expected goals: Vestri 1.25, Rīgas FS 2.19.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

64%
Both teams to score
67%
Over 2.5 goals
33%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-2 10%1-1 9%0-2 8%

Head-to-head: Vestri vs Rīgas FS

  • 30 July 2026Vestri 1–1 Rīgas FSUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 23 July 2026Rīgas FS 4–1 VestriUEFA Europa Conference League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Rīgas FS the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Vestri against 2.19 for Rīgas FS. Vestri's attack/defence rating is 0.4/2.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.66 for Rīgas FS.