Vestri
vs
Rīgas FS
The model makes it 21% Vestri, 21% draw, 58% Rīgas FS — fair odds of 4.76, 4.76 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Vestri 1.25, Rīgas FS 2.19.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Vestri vs Rīgas FS
- 30 July 2026Vestri 1–1 Rīgas FSUEFA Europa Conference League
- 23 July 2026Rīgas FS 4–1 VestriUEFA Europa Conference League
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rīgas FS the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Vestri against 2.19 for Rīgas FS. Vestri's attack/defence rating is 0.4/2.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.66 for Rīgas FS.