New York City FC
vs
Toronto FC
The model makes it 56% New York City FC, 23% draw, 21% Toronto FC — fair odds of 1.79, 4.35 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: New York City FC 1.96, Toronto FC 1.11.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: New York City FC vs Toronto FC
- 3 July 2025New York City FC 3–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 26 April 2025Toronto FC 0–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 11 May 2024Toronto FC 2–3 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 16 March 2024New York City FC 2–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 24 September 2023New York City FC 3–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 26 July 2023New York City FC 5–0 Toronto FCLeagues Cup
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives New York City FC the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.96 expected goals for New York City FC against 1.11 for Toronto FC. New York City FC's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.44 for Toronto FC.