31 July 2026, 23:30 UTC

New York City FC vs Toronto FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Yankee Stadium, New York
Full time1 – 1

Final score: New York City FC 1-1 Toronto FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% New York City FC, 23% draw, 22% Toronto FC — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts New York City FC at 55% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

New York City FC5%Draw92%Toronto FC3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
R. Laryea
⚽N. Mercau (pen)
8'
Talles Magno
11'
N. Mercau
18'
45+6'
J. Osorio
45+6'
⚽D. Mihailovic
56'
N. Dorsch
🔁B. Traoreout: M. Jones
59'
🔁A. Ojedaout: H. Wolf
59'
61'
J. Gilman
71'
🔁N. Dorschout: A. Coello
71'
🔁J. Sargentout: D. Kerr
72'
🔁D. Mihailovicout: D. Etienne
🔁Talles Magnoout: M. Carrizo
72'
🔁N. Mercauout: S. Reid
86'
🔁Thiago Martinsout: M. Ilenic
86'
87'
🔁T. Corbeanuout: M. Henry

Match stats — New York City FC vs Toronto FC

49%Possession51%
16Shots13
5On target5
3Corners2
2.08xG1

Goals against chances

New York City FC1 from 2.08 xGless than the chances were worth
Toronto FC1 from 1.00 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

New York City FC 4-1-4-1
  • 49Matthew FreeseG
  • 24Tayvon GrayD
  • 13Thiago MartinsD
  • 6James SandsD
  • 2Nico CavalloD
  • 32Jonathan ShoreM
  • 26Agustin OjedaM
  • 7Nicolás FernándezM
  • 8Andrés PereaM
  • 9Bénie TraoréM
  • 11Talles MagnoF
Substitutes
  • 17Hannes WolfF
  • 88Malachi JonesF
  • 29Máximo CarrizoM
  • 35Mitja IleničD
  • 99Seymour Garfield-ReidF
  • 30Tomás RomeroG
  • 23Max MurrayD
  • 27Cooper FlaxM
  • 15Kevin PierreM
Coach: Pascal Jansen
Toronto FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1Luka GavranG
  • 19Kobe FranklinD
  • 25Walker ZimmermanD
  • 38Jackson GilmanD
  • 22Richie LaryeaD
  • 21Jonathan OsorioM
  • 6Niklas DorschM
  • 7Theo CorbeanuM
  • 10Đorđe MihailovićM
  • 20Dániel SallóiM
  • 9Josh SargentF
Substitutes
  • 14Alonso CoelloM
  • 29Deandre KerrF
  • 11Derrick EtienneF
  • 78Malik HenryM
  • 23William YarbroughG
  • 13Benjamin KuscevicD
  • 44Raheem EdwardsD
  • 17Emilio AristizábalF
  • 99Jules-Anthony VilsaintF
Coach: Robin Fraser

Form going into New York City FC vs Toronto FC

New York City FC

  • W3-1Chicago Fire25 July 2026
  • W2-1away to Columbus Crew22 July 2026

Toronto FC

  • L1-2away to DC United25 July 2026
  • D0-0away to New England Revolution22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: New York City FC vs Toronto FC

  • 3 July 2025New York City FC 3–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 26 April 2025Toronto FC 0–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 11 May 2024Toronto FC 2–3 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 16 March 2024New York City FC 2–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 24 September 2023New York City FC 3–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 26 July 2023New York City FC 5–0 Toronto FCLeagues Cup

Leading scorers: New York City FC and Toronto FC

New York City FC

  • N. Fernández Mercau15 goals4 assists

Toronto FC

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.