New York City FC vs Toronto FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York City FC 1-1 Toronto FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% New York City FC, 23% draw, 22% Toronto FC — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York City FC at 55% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York City FC vs Toronto FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 49Matthew FreeseG
- 24Tayvon GrayD
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 6James SandsD
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 32Jonathan ShoreM
- 26Agustin OjedaM
- 7Nicolás FernándezM
- 8Andrés PereaM
- 9Bénie TraoréM
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 17Hannes WolfF
- 88Malachi JonesF
- 29Máximo CarrizoM
- 35Mitja IleničD
- 99Seymour Garfield-ReidF
- 30Tomás RomeroG
- 23Max MurrayD
- 27Cooper FlaxM
- 15Kevin PierreM
- 1Luka GavranG
- 19Kobe FranklinD
- 25Walker ZimmermanD
- 38Jackson GilmanD
- 22Richie LaryeaD
- 21Jonathan OsorioM
- 6Niklas DorschM
- 7Theo CorbeanuM
- 10Đorđe MihailovićM
- 20Dániel SallóiM
- 9Josh SargentF
- 14Alonso CoelloM
- 29Deandre KerrF
- 11Derrick EtienneF
- 78Malik HenryM
- 23William YarbroughG
- 13Benjamin KuscevicD
- 44Raheem EdwardsD
- 17Emilio AristizábalF
- 99Jules-Anthony VilsaintF
Form going into New York City FC vs Toronto FC
New York City FC
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Chicago Fire25 July 2026
- W2-1away to Columbus Crew22 July 2026
Toronto FC
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to DC United25 July 2026
- D0-0away to New England Revolution22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | New York City FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 38 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New York City FC vs Toronto FC
- 3 July 2025New York City FC 3–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 26 April 2025Toronto FC 0–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 11 May 2024Toronto FC 2–3 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 16 March 2024New York City FC 2–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 24 September 2023New York City FC 3–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 26 July 2023New York City FC 5–0 Toronto FCLeagues Cup
Leading scorers: New York City FC and Toronto FC
New York City FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Fernández Mercau165
Toronto FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 50 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
New York City FC and Toronto FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for New York City FC at 55% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: N. Mercau (penalty) 8' for New York City FC, D. Mihailovic 45+6' for Toronto FC. On expected goals it finished 2.08–1.00.