Derby vs Cardiff Championship prediction & result
Final score: Derby 2-2 Cardiff.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Derby, 23% draw, 25% Cardiff — fair odds of 1.92, 4.35 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Derby at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Derby vs Cardiff
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Jacob Widell ZetterströmG
- 22Max JohnstonD
- 28Dion SandersonD
- 6Sondre LangåsD
- 18Charlie TaylorD
- 27Lewis TravisM
- 20Alex MowattM
- 8Bobby ClarkM
- 29Oscar FrauloM
- 33Corey Blackett-TaylorM
- 9Carlton MorrisF
- 31Josh VickersG
- 3Craig ForsythD
- 24Ryan NyambeD
- 23Joe WardM
- 37Owen EamesM
- 26Ryan HedgesM
- 15Lars-Jørgen SalvesenF
- 13Filip BilbijaM
- 10Rhian BrewsterF
- 1Nathan TrottG
- 44Ronan KpakioD
- 38Perry NgD
- 3Joel BaganD
- 23Calum ScanlonD
- 8Jack MoylanM
- 18Alex RobertsonM
- 11Ollie TannerM
- 10Rubin ColwillM
- 45Cian AshfordM
- 9Yousef SalechF
- 41Matthew TurnerG
- 30Harry TyrerG
- 40Noah AnyadikeD
- 16Chris WillockM
- 33Rob TankiewiczM
- 27Joel ColwillM
- 14David TurnbullM
- 39Isaak DaviesF
- 47Callum RobinsonF
Form going into Derby vs Cardiff
Derby
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Charlton15 August 2026
Cardiff
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Wrexham17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 10 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Derby vs Cardiff
- 25 January 2025Cardiff 2–1 DerbyChampionship
- 14 September 2024Derby 1–0 CardiffChampionship
- 7 May 2022Derby 0–1 CardiffChampionship
- 1 March 2022Cardiff 1–0 DerbyChampionship
- 2 March 2021Cardiff 4–0 DerbyChampionship
Leading scorers: Derby and Cardiff
Derby
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Cardiff
GoalsAssists
- J. Moylan103
- Y. Salech51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Derby and Cardiff drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Derby at 52% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: C. Ashford 19' for Cardiff, C. Morris 26' for Derby, Y. Salech 39' for Cardiff, B. Clark 49' for Derby. On expected goals it finished 1.31–1.74.