Derby
vs
Cardiff
Championship prediction
The model makes it 49% Derby, 18% draw, 33% Cardiff — fair odds of 2.04, 5.56 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-2.
Expected goals: Derby 2.85, Cardiff 2.38.
Both teams to score: 86%. Over 2.5 goals: 89%, under 2.5: 11%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Derby vs Cardiff
- 25 January 2025Cardiff 2–1 DerbyChampionship
- 14 September 2024Derby 1–0 CardiffChampionship
- 7 May 2022Derby 0–1 CardiffChampionship
- 1 March 2022Cardiff 1–0 DerbyChampionship
- 2 March 2021Cardiff 4–0 DerbyChampionship
- 28 October 2020Derby 1–1 CardiffChampionship
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Derby carry a model rating of 6.89 against 7.03 for Cardiff. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.85 goals for Derby and 2.38 for Cardiff. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Derby rate 1.10 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cardiff rate 1.67 and 1.37.
That points to 89% for over two and a half goals and 86% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-2 (6%), 3-2 (6%), 2-1 (5%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Derby the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.85 expected goals for Derby against 2.38 for Cardiff. Derby's attack/defence rating is 1.1/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.67/1.37 for Cardiff.