Hull City
vs
Manchester United
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 47% Hull City, 23% draw, 30% Manchester United — fair odds of 2.13, 4.35 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hull City 1.88, Manchester United 1.47.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Hull City vs Manchester United
- 1 February 2017Manchester United 0–0 Hull CityPremier League
- 26 January 2017Hull City 2–1 Manchester UnitedLeague Cup
- 10 January 2017Manchester United 2–0 Hull CityLeague Cup
- 27 August 2016Hull City 0–1 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 24 May 2015Hull City 0–0 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 29 November 2014Manchester United 3–0 Hull CityPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hull City carry a model rating of 7.01 against 7.04 for Manchester United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Hull City and 1.47 for Manchester United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hull City rate 1.13 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Manchester United rate 1.28 and 0.88.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hull City the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Hull City against 1.47 for Manchester United. Hull City's attack/defence rating is 1.13/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.28/0.88 for Manchester United.