Blackburn vs Middlesbrough Championship prediction & result
Final score: Blackburn 2-1 Middlesbrough.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% Blackburn, 22% draw, 56% Middlesbrough — fair odds of 4.55, 4.55 and 1.79.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Middlesbrough at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Blackburn vs Middlesbrough
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22Balázs TóthG
- 2Ryan AlebiosuD
- 6Tom AtchesonD
- 15Sean McLoughlinD
- 3Harry PickeringD
- 8Sam MorsyM
- 31Kristi MontgomeryM
- 25Ryoya MorishitaM
- 10Todd CantwellM
- 21Oladapo AfolayanM
- 9Andri GuðjohnsenF
- 1Aynsley PearsG
- 17Hayden CarterD
- 4Yuri RibeiroD
- 5Sidnei TavaresM
- 30Jake GarrettM
- 28Adam ForshawM
- 11Jayden FevrierF
- 29Mathias JørgensenF
- 23Yuki OhashiF
- 1Radek VitekG
- 2Callum BrittainD
- 12Luke AylingD
- 29Adilson MalandaD
- 17Maximilian ArfstenD
- 6Sebastian BerhalterM
- 14Myles Peart-HarrisM
- 10Aidan MorrisM
- 16Jeremy SarmientoM
- 11Morgan WhittakerF
- 7Will LankshearF
- 31Solomon BrynnG
- 30Neto BorgesD
- 5Alfie JonesD
- 42Abdoulaye KantéM
- 46Finlay CartwrightM
- 19Leo CastledineM
- 8Riley McGreeM
- 22Kyle JosephF
- 44Cruz IbehM
Form going into Blackburn vs Middlesbrough
Blackburn
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Wolves14 August 2026
Middlesbrough
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Lincoln15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 21 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Blackburn vs Middlesbrough
- 21 March 2026Blackburn 0–0 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 26 December 2025Middlesbrough 0–0 BlackburnChampionship
- 4 April 2025Blackburn 0–2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 11 January 2025Middlesbrough 0–1 BlackburnFA Cup
- 27 November 2024Middlesbrough 0–1 BlackburnChampionship
Leading scorers: Blackburn and Middlesbrough
Blackburn
GoalsAssists
- A. Guðjohnsen101
- O. Afolayan52
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear130
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Blackburn beat Middlesbrough 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Middlesbrough at 56% and given a win for Blackburn 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: J. Sarmiento 12' for Middlesbrough, A. Gudjohnsen 49' for Blackburn, T. Cantwell 55' for Blackburn. On expected goals it finished 0.63–0.49.