Preston
vs
Wolves
Championship prediction
The model makes it 62% Preston, 17% draw, 21% Wolves — fair odds of 1.61, 5.88 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Preston 2.93, Wolves 1.75.
Both teams to score: 78%. Over 2.5 goals: 85%, under 2.5: 15%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Preston vs Wolves
- 23 August 2022Wolves 2–1 PrestonLeague Cup
- 17 February 2018Preston 1–1 WolvesChampionship
- 21 October 2017Wolves 3–2 PrestonChampionship
- 7 May 2017Wolves 1–0 PrestonChampionship
- 19 November 2016Preston 0–0 WolvesChampionship
- 13 February 2016Wolves 1–2 PrestonChampionship
The two sides
Preston carry a model rating of 6.96 against 6.81 for Wolves. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.93 goals for Preston and 1.75 for Wolves. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Preston rate 1.45 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wolves rate 0.99 and 1.07.
That points to 85% for over two and a half goals and 78% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (7%), 3-1 (7%), 2-2 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Preston the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.93 expected goals for Preston against 1.75 for Wolves. Preston's attack/defence rating is 1.45/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.07 for Wolves.