Lincoln vs Portsmouth Championship prediction & result
Final score: Lincoln 1-3 Portsmouth.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Lincoln, 22% draw, 31% Portsmouth — fair odds of 2.13, 4.55 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Lincoln at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lincoln vs Portsmouth
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1George WickensG
- 2Tendayi DarikwaD
- 22Tom HamerD
- 25Deji ElereweD
- 3Adam ReachD
- 14Conor McGrandlesM
- 24Ivan VarfolomeevM
- 7Reeco Hackett-FairchildM
- 18Ben HouseM
- 16Dom JefferiesM
- 34Freddie DraperF
- 4Andrei CoubișD
- 8Tom BaylissM
- 17Robert StreetF
- 10Mason MeliaF
- 19Tanto OlaofeF
- 46Joe GauciG
- 6Ryley TowlerD
- 26Yunus KonakM
- 20Callum ElderD
- 1Nicolas SchmidG
- 24Terry DevlinD
- 2Benjamin ArthurD
- 6Conor ShaughnessyD
- 22Zak SwansonD
- 7Marlon PackM
- 19Rocco Robert SheinM
- 11Abu KamaraM
- 10Adrian SegečićM
- 25Ryan Kavuma-McQueenM
- 9Colby BishopF
- 38Ebou AdamsM
- 23Josh MurphyM
- 29Marko MilovanovićF
- 4Josh KnightD
- 28Luke Brooke-SmithF
- 31Daniel BielicaG
- 55Madiodio DiaD
- 27Odin BaileyM
- 8John SwiftM
Form going into Lincoln vs Portsmouth
Lincoln
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Middlesbrough15 August 2026
Portsmouth
All competitions we cover
- L1-3QPR15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 15 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lincoln vs Portsmouth
- 27 April 2024Lincoln 0–2 PortsmouthLeague One
- 23 September 2023Portsmouth 2–1 LincolnLeague One
- 18 February 2023Lincoln 0–0 PortsmouthLeague One
- 6 August 2022Portsmouth 0–0 LincolnLeague One
- 15 April 2022Portsmouth 3–2 LincolnLeague One
The result against the call
Portsmouth won 3–1 at Lincoln. The model had leaned towards a win for Lincoln at 47% and given a win for Portsmouth 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: R. Kavuma McQueen 7' for Portsmouth, A. Segecic 16' for Portsmouth, R. Hackett-Fairchild (penalty) 32' for Lincoln, E. Adams 69' for Portsmouth. On expected goals it finished 2.29–1.15.