Millwall vs Norwich Championship prediction & result
Final score: Millwall 3-0 Norwich.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Millwall, 21% draw, 22% Norwich — fair odds of 1.75, 4.76 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Millwall at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Millwall vs Norwich
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Lukas JensenG
- 17Mark SykesD
- 6Caleb TaylorD
- 5Jake CooperD
- 3Zak SturgeD
- 10Camiel NeghliM
- 24Casper De NorreM
- 14Jenson MetcalfeM
- 7Tairyk ArconteF
- 19Josh CoburnF
- 22Kyrell LisbieF
- 29Zak LovelaceF
- 16Daniel KellyM
- 25Luke CundleM
- 13Lyndon DykesF
- 2Jordi Osei-TutuD
- 15Max CrocombeG
- 23Danny BatthD
- 12Elkan BaggottD
- 31Raees Bangura-WilliamsM
- 1Vladan KovačevićG
- 35Kellen FisherD
- 6Harry DarlingD
- 33José CórdobaD
- 14Ben ChriseneD
- 23Kenny McLeanM
- 26Sam FieldM
- 11Andre BrooksM
- 20Anis Ben SlimaneM
- 29Oscar SchwartauM
- 21Mohamed TouréF
- 3Jack StaceyD
- 19Papa Amadou DialloF
- 7Pelle MattssonM
- 15Ruairi McConvilleD
- 49Anthony MusabaF
- 32Daniel GrimshawG
- 13Darlin YongwaD
- 16Jacob WrightM
- 30Mathias KvistgaardenF
Form going into Millwall vs Norwich
Millwall
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Bristol City15 August 2026
Norwich
All competitions we cover
- L1-2West Brom15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 18 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 24 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Millwall vs Norwich
- 6 April 2026Millwall 1–2 NorwichChampionship
- 9 August 2025Norwich 1–2 MillwallChampionship
- 21 April 2025Millwall 3–1 NorwichChampionship
- 26 December 2024Norwich 2–1 MillwallChampionship
- 29 December 2023Millwall 1–0 NorwichChampionship
Leading scorers: Millwall and Norwich
Millwall
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.
Norwich
GoalsAssists
- M. Touré50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Millwall beat Norwich 3–0. The model had made a win for Millwall its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: T. Arconte 18' for Millwall, T. Arconte 58' for Millwall, L. Cundle 84' for Millwall. Sent off: J. Cordoba (Norwich) 64'. On expected goals it finished 2.61–1.12.