Birmingham vs Bristol City Championship prediction & result
Final score: Birmingham 2-2 Bristol City.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Birmingham, 22% draw, 18% Bristol City — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Birmingham at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Birmingham vs Bristol City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1James BeadleG
- 26Bright Osayi-SamuelD
- 5Phil NeumannD
- 4Christoph KlarerD
- 20Alex CochraneD
- 24Tomoki IwataM
- 14Jhon SolísM
- 7Carlos VicenteM
- 8Seung Ho PaikM
- 28Jay StansfieldM
- 9August PriskeF
- 2Ethan LairdD
- 16Patrick RobertsM
- 10Demarai GrayF
- 32Luis VázquezF
- 33Marvin DuckschF
- 21Ryan AllsopG
- 25Kristoffer LundD
- 23Dael FryD
- 27Kanya FujimotoM
- 1Sam TickleG
- 19George TannerD
- 16Rob DickieD
- 2Lisav Naif EissatD
- 21Rio CardinesD
- 12Jason KnightM
- 8Joe WilliamsM
- 17Jed WallaceM
- 10Scott TwineM
- 7Yu HirakawaM
- 9Lorent TolajF
- 14Tomi HorvatM
- 23Dominic BallardF
- 27Gibson YahM
- 20Sam GreenwoodM
- 5Robert AtkinsonD
- 40Brad CollinsG
- 38Noah EileD
- 11Sam BellF
- 18Emil Riis JacobsenF
Form going into Birmingham vs Bristol City
Birmingham
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Sheffield Utd15 August 2026
Bristol City
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Millwall15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 14 | +14 | 29 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Birmingham vs Bristol City
- 25 April 2026Birmingham 2–1 Bristol CityChampionship
- 25 October 2025Bristol City 1–0 BirminghamChampionship
- 29 December 2023Birmingham 0–0 Bristol CityChampionship
- 19 August 2023Bristol City 0–2 BirminghamChampionship
- 14 January 2023Bristol City 4–2 BirminghamChampionship
Leading scorers: Birmingham and Bristol City
Birmingham
GoalsAssists
- A. Priske61
- L. Millar43
Bristol City
GoalsAssists
- S. Twine50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Birmingham and Bristol City drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Birmingham at 60% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: S. Twine 33' for Bristol City, S. Tickle (own goal) 42' for Birmingham, D. Ballard 85' for Bristol City, D. Gray (penalty) 90+5' for Birmingham. On expected goals it finished 1.98–1.43.