Sturm Graz
vs
Austria Lustenau
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 87% Sturm Graz, 9% draw, 4% Austria Lustenau — fair odds of 1.15, 11.11 and 25.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Sturm Graz 3.57, Austria Lustenau 0.80.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sturm Graz
- W2-0away to TSV Hartberg8 August 2026
- D1-1away to WSG Wattens1 August 2026
Austria Lustenau
- L1-2away to Grazer AK8 August 2026
- D1-1Ried2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sturm Graz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 |
| 9 | Austria Lustenau | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Sturm Graz
- N. Weiper2 goals
- S. Włodarczyk1 goals
Austria Lustenau
- D. Weixelbraun1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Sturm Graz carry a model rating of 6.59 against 5.99 for Austria Lustenau. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Sturm Graz D-W; Austria Lustenau D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.57 goals for Sturm Graz and 0.80 for Austria Lustenau. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sturm Graz rate 0.84 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Austria Lustenau rate 0.40 and 2.25.
That points to 81% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (10%), 4-0 (9%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sturm Graz the highest probability at 87%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.57 expected goals for Sturm Graz against 0.8 for Austria Lustenau. Sturm Graz's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/2.25 for Austria Lustenau.