Universitario
vs
UCV Moquegua
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Universitario 2–0 UCV Moquegua
The model makes it 65% Universitario, 22% draw, 13% UCV Moquegua — fair odds of 1.54, 4.55 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Universitario 2.13, UCV Moquegua 0.70.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,491 settled matches.
One-sided: Universitario are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Universitario's rating is built from 64 Primera División (Peru) matches and UCV Moquegua's from 29, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Universitario are 3rd on 53 points from 29 games; UCV Moquegua are 16th on 28 points from 29 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Universitario have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Alianza Atletico.
- UCV Moquegua have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to FC Cajamarca.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universitario vs UCV Moquegua
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitario at 65% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 368 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Universitario vs UCV Moquegua
Universitario
Primera División
- W4-1away to Alianza Atletico18 October 2026
- D2-2FBC Melgar11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Deportivo Garcilaso19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Alianza Lima13 September 2026
- D2-2Comerciantes Unidos6 September 2026
UCV Moquegua
Primera División
- W1-0away to FC Cajamarca18 October 2026
- L0-2Cienciano8 October 2026
- L0-4away to Juan Pablo II College20 September 2026
- L1-2Sporting Cristal13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Cusco5 September 2026
What these results say
- Universitario conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Universitario had three goals or more.
- Universitario scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- UCV Moquegua failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- UCV Moquegua conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universitario | 29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 49 | 34 | +15 | 53 |
| 16 | UCV Moquegua | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Universitario vs UCV Moquegua
- 23 May 2026UCV Moquegua 0–0 UniversitarioPrimera División
Leading scorers: Universitario and UCV Moquegua
Universitario
GoalsAssists
- A. Valera172
UCV Moquegua
GoalsAssists
- E. Lastre85
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Universitario carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.13 for UCV Moquegua. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.13 goals for Universitario and 0.70 for UCV Moquegua. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universitario rate 0.76 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; UCV Moquegua rate 0.39 and 1.72.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Universitario a 0.8% chance of the title and UCV Moquegua 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitario the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Universitario against 0.70 for UCV Moquegua. Universitario's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.72 for UCV Moquegua.
How the model reaches 65% for Universitario to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Universitario to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Universitario's ratings take away 17 points and UCV Moquegua's ratings add 38 points, which lands on the published 65%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Universitario's ratings27%−17
- UCV Moquegua's ratings65%+38
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Universitario at home · UCV Moquegua away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Universitario 29, UCV Moquegua 29.
Universitario score most often in the 16–30 minute window (13 goals); UCV Moquegua have let in 4 there.
UCV Moquegua score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Universitario have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Universitario
- at Sport Huancayo14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
UCV Moquegua
- vs Atletico Grau14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.