CSKA Sofia
vs
Maccabi Tel Aviv
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 43% CSKA Sofia, 27% draw, 30% Maccabi Tel Aviv — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.46, Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.17.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
CSKA Sofia
- W2-1Dunav Ruse2 August 2026
- W3-2Botev Plovdiv27 July 2026
- D0-0away to Slavia Sofia20 July 2026
Maccabi Tel Aviv
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
CSKA Sofia carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.27 for Maccabi Tel Aviv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): CSKA Sofia D-W-W; Maccabi Tel Aviv W-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for CSKA Sofia and 1.17 for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CSKA Sofia rate 0.41 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Maccabi Tel Aviv rate 0.59 and 1.88.
That points to 49% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA Sofia the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for CSKA Sofia against 1.17 for Maccabi Tel Aviv. CSKA Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.88 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.