Beşiktaş
vs
Hradec Králové
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 34% Beşiktaş, 23% draw, 43% Hradec Králové — fair odds of 2.94, 4.35 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Beşiktaş 1.66, Hradec Králové 1.89.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Beşiktaş
No earlier matches on record this season.
Hradec Králové
- W2-1Baník Ostrava9 August 2026
- D0-0away to Bohemians 19052 August 2026
- W2-1Pardubice26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hradec Králové | Czech Liga | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Beşiktaş has not started the league season yet. Full tables
The two sides
Beşiktaş carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.97 for Hradec Králové. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Beşiktaş W-W-W; Hradec Králové W-D-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Beşiktaş and 1.89 for Hradec Králové. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Beşiktaş rate 1.07 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hradec Králové rate 1.04 and 0.82.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hradec Králové the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Beşiktaş against 1.89 for Hradec Králové. Beşiktaş's attack/defence rating is 1.07/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/0.82 for Hradec Králové.