Vikingur Reykjavik
vs
FC Thun
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 33% Vikingur Reykjavik, 23% draw, 44% FC Thun — fair odds of 3.03, 4.35 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Vikingur Reykjavik 1.68, FC Thun 1.94.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Vikingur Reykjavik
No earlier matches on record this season.
FC Thun
- L2-4away to FC Basel 18939 August 2026
- L0-6BSC Young Boys1 August 2026
- W3-1away to FC Luzern25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
The two sides
Vikingur Reykjavik carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.34 for FC Thun. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Vikingur Reykjavik W-D-W-L; FC Thun W-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Vikingur Reykjavik and 1.94 for FC Thun. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vikingur Reykjavik rate 0.51 in attack and 2.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Thun rate 0.63 and 1.74.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Thun the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Vikingur Reykjavik against 1.94 for FC Thun. Vikingur Reykjavik's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.74 for FC Thun.