Heart of Midlothian
vs
Benfica
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 8% Heart of Midlothian, 12% draw, 80% Benfica — fair odds of 12.50, 8.33 and 1.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-3 (8%).
Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 0.97, Benfica 3.21.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Heart of Midlothian
- W4-0Dundee United9 August 2026
- L1-2away to Aberdeen1 August 2026
Benfica
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heart of Midlothian | Premiership | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Benfica has not started the league season yet. Full tables
A clear gap in the ratings
Heart of Midlothian carry a model rating of 6.33 against 7.1 for Benfica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Heart of Midlothian L-W; Benfica L-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.97 goals for Heart of Midlothian and 3.21 for Benfica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heart of Midlothian rate 0.50 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Benfica rate 1.59 and 1.03.
That points to 79% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-3 (8%), 1-3 (8%), 0-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benfica the highest probability at 80%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Heart of Midlothian against 3.21 for Benfica. Heart of Midlothian's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.59/1.03 for Benfica.