13 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Heart of Midlothian vs Benfica UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Heart of Midlothian 1-1 Benfica.

Before kick-off the model made it 10% Heart of Midlothian, 13% draw, 77% Benfica — fair odds of 10.00, 7.69 and 1.30.

Most likely scoreline: 1-3.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Benfica 6–1 Heart of Midlothian (6 Aug) →

Benfica went through 7–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Benfica at 77%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Heart of Midlothian3%Draw88%Benfica9%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

C. Braga
34'
46'
🔁C. Lengletout: T. Araujo
•C. Miller
54'
🔁T. Renaudout: T. Magnusson
64'
64'
🔁E. Barrenecheaout: L. Barreiro
64'
🔁G. Sudakovout: G. Prestianni
🔁S. Guendouzout: S. Kerjota
75'
🔁C. Millerout: J. Wilson
75'
🔁C. Bragaout: P. Kabore
76'
⚽T. Magnusson
77'
78'
⚽D. Lukebakioassist: J. Neto
79'
🔁D. Lukebakioout: J. Kaminski
79'
🔁A. Schjelderupout: Rafa Silva
🔁O. McEnteeout: M. Kamara
84'

Line-ups

Heart of Midlothian
  • 1B. Reus
  • 23J. Altena
  • 6O. McEntee
  • 17S. Findlay
  • 5J. McCart
  • 16B. Spittal
  • 12T. Renaud
  • 7C. Miller
  • 19S. Guendouz
  • 15J. McPake
  • 10C. Braga
Substitutes
  • 30R. Fulton
  • 39M. Gillies
  • 24M. Kamara
  • 22T. Magnusson
  • 29S. Kerjota
  • 11P. Kabore
  • 77A. Ba-Sy
  • 21J. Wilson
Coach: Wouter Vrancken
Benfica
  • 24S. Soares
  • 17A. Dedic
  • 16Manu
  • 2C. Lenglet
  • 62J. Neto
  • 20R. Rios
  • 5E. Barrenechea
  • 11D. Lukebakio
  • 10G. Sudakov
  • 21A. Schjelderup
  • 22J. Duran
Substitutes
  • 1A. Trubin
  • 58D. Banjaqui
  • 6A. Bah
  • 44T. Araujo
  • 18L. Barreiro
  • 13J. Kaminski
  • 33Gabriel Indio
  • 26S. Dahl
  • 73M. Figueiredo
Coach: Marco Silva

Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs Benfica

Heart of Midlothian

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0Dundee United9 August 2026
  • L1-6away to Benfica6 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Aberdeen1 August 2026
  • L0-2Sturm Graz28 July 2026
  • L0-4away to Sturm Graz21 July 2026

Benfica

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Academico Viseu9 August 2026
  • W6-1Heart of Midlothian6 August 2026
  • W5-0FC St. Gallen30 July 2026
  • L1-2away to FC St. Gallen23 July 2026

What these results say

  • Heart of Midlothian failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Heart of Midlothian conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Heart of Midlothian had three goals or more.
  • Benfica scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Benfica had three goals or more.
  • Benfica conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs Benfica

  • 6 August 2026Benfica 6–1 Heart of MidlothianUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and Benfica

Heart of Midlothian

No leading scorers listed yet.

Benfica

GoalsAssists

  • G. Prestianni22

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Heart of Midlothian and Benfica drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Benfica at 77% and given a draw 13%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 8 matches like this one. The goals: T. Magnusson 77' for Heart of Midlothian, D. Lukebakio 78' for Benfica.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.