Maccabi Tel Aviv
vs
CSKA Sofia
The model makes it 48% Maccabi Tel Aviv, 27% draw, 25% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.52, CSKA Sofia 1.03.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Maccabi Tel Aviv
No earlier matches on record this season.
CSKA Sofia
- W2-1Dunav Ruse2 August 2026
- W3-2Botev Plovdiv27 July 2026
- D0-0away to Slavia Sofia20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Maccabi Tel Aviv carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.27 for CSKA Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Maccabi Tel Aviv W-W; CSKA Sofia D-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv and 1.03 for CSKA Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maccabi Tel Aviv rate 0.59 in attack and 1.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA Sofia rate 0.39 and 1.36.
That points to 47% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Tel Aviv the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv against 1.03 for CSKA Sofia. Maccabi Tel Aviv's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.36 for CSKA Sofia.