Gornik Zabrze
vs
Ferencvarosi TC
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 46% Gornik Zabrze, 32% draw, 22% Ferencvarosi TC — fair odds of 2.17, 3.13 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Gornik Zabrze 1.19, Ferencvarosi TC 0.75.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Gornik Zabrze
- W3-1away to Radomiak Radom8 August 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw25 July 2026
Ferencvarosi TC
- D0-0Vasas2 August 2026
- L2-4away to Paks26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 11 | Ferencvarosi TC | NB I | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables
Leading scorers
Gornik Zabrze
- Peter2 goals
Ferencvarosi TC
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gornik Zabrze carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.62 for Ferencvarosi TC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Gornik Zabrze W-W; Ferencvarosi TC L-D.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.75 for Ferencvarosi TC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gornik Zabrze rate 0.74 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ferencvarosi TC rate 0.41 and 0.85.
That points to 31% for over two and a half goals and 37% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (17%), 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (13%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gornik Zabrze the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze against 0.75 for Ferencvarosi TC. Gornik Zabrze's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/0.85 for Ferencvarosi TC.