FK Tobol Kostanay
vs
FK Partizan
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 62% FK Tobol Kostanay, 18% draw, 20% FK Partizan — fair odds of 1.61, 5.56 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: FK Tobol Kostanay 2.80, FK Partizan 1.60.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FK Tobol Kostanay
No earlier matches on record this season.
FK Partizan
- L1-2IMT Novi Beograd2 August 2026
- W3-1away to Macva26 July 2026
- D2-2away to Zemun18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Leading scorers
FK Tobol Kostanay
No league goals recorded yet.
FK Partizan
- M. Vukotić1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FK Tobol Kostanay carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.08 for FK Partizan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FK Tobol Kostanay D-L; FK Partizan D-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.80 goals for FK Tobol Kostanay and 1.60 for FK Partizan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Tobol Kostanay rate 0.50 in attack and 1.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Partizan rate 0.59 and 2.96.
That points to 81% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%), 2-2 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Tobol Kostanay the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.8 expected goals for FK Tobol Kostanay against 1.6 for FK Partizan. FK Tobol Kostanay's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/2.96 for FK Partizan.