13 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Red Bull Arena, Salzburg
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Pafos 3-3 Red Bull Salzburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Pafos, 22% draw, 41% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 2.70, 4.55 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Red Bull Salzburg 1–0 Pafos (6 Aug) →

Red Bull Salzburg went through 4–3 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Red Bull Salzburg at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pafos5%Draw90%Red Bull Salzburg5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Leleassist: Bruno
15'
36'
N. Veratschnig
⚽Biel
37'
46'
🔁S. Kitanoout: E. Baidoo
Bruno
48'
54'
⚽H. Tabakovicassist: D. Redzic
58'
⚽H. Tabakovic (pen)
🔁Gugaout: N. Moumi Ngamaleu
61'
70'
⚽H. Tabakovic
🔁I. Sunjicout: Anderson Silva
75'
75'
🔁H. Tabakovicout: K. Konate
🔁V. Dragomirout: M. Mammadov
82'
82'
🔁Y. Vertessenout: T. Drexler
82'
🔁N. Veratschnigout: L. Morgalla
⚽M. Mammadovassist: Lele
84'
86'
🔁D. Redzicout: F. Kratzig

Line-ups

Pafos
  • 99R. Majecki
  • 7Bruno
  • 5D. Goldar
  • 4David Luiz
  • 14N. Ioannou
  • 26I. Sunjic
  • 30V. Dragomir
  • 6Guga
  • 88Pepe
  • 20Biel
  • 18Lele
Substitutes
  • 71M. Papastylianou
  • 82P. Petrou
  • 3S. Mmaee
  • 72K. Ioannou
  • 61M. Kais
  • 13N. Moumi Ngamaleu
  • 50A. Brito
  • 47M. Mammadov
  • 60C. Efzona
Coach: Albert Celades
Red Bull Salzburg
  • 52C. Zawieschitzky
  • 18N. Veratschnig
  • 44K. Boma
  • 47V. Zabransky
  • 31D. Schmid
  • 32A. Barry
  • 15B. Mazurek
  • 8S. Kitano
  • 11Y. Vertessen
  • 23D. Redzic
  • 9H. Tabakovic
Substitutes
  • 1C. Fruchtl
  • 41N. Sarcevic
  • 21T. Drexler
  • 39L. Morgalla
  • 13F. Kratzig
  • 4J. Mellberg
  • 14M. Kjaergaard
  • 28F. Matijasevic
  • 19K. Konate
Coach: Danny Rohl

Form going into Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg

Pafos

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Red Bull Salzburg6 August 2026
  • W2-0HNK Hajduk Split30 July 2026
  • L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split23 July 2026

Red Bull Salzburg

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Wolfsberger AC9 August 2026
  • W1-0Pafos6 August 2026
  • W1-0TSV Hartberg1 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg

  • 6 August 2026Red Bull Salzburg 1–0 PafosUEFA Europa League

The result against the call

Pafos and Red Bull Salzburg drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Red Bull Salzburg at 41% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Lele 15' for Pafos, Biel 37' for Pafos, H. Tabakovic 54' for Red Bull Salzburg, H. Tabakovic (penalty) 58' for Red Bull Salzburg, H. Tabakovic 70' for Red Bull Salzburg, M. Mammadov 84' for Pafos.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.