Pafos
vs
Red Bull Salzburg
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 37% Pafos, 22% draw, 41% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 2.70, 4.55 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Pafos 1.87, Red Bull Salzburg 1.98.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Pafos
No earlier matches on record this season.
Red Bull Salzburg
- D1-1away to Wolfsberger AC9 August 2026
- W1-0TSV Hartberg1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
The two sides
Pafos carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.68 for Red Bull Salzburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Pafos L-L; Red Bull Salzburg W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Pafos and 1.98 for Red Bull Salzburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pafos rate 0.63 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Red Bull Salzburg rate 1.05 and 1.57.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Red Bull Salzburg the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Pafos against 1.98 for Red Bull Salzburg. Pafos's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/1.57 for Red Bull Salzburg.