Ilves
vs
HNK Rijeka
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 47% Ilves, 25% draw, 28% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Ilves 1.66, HNK Rijeka 1.25.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Ilves
- W2-0Mariehamn9 August 2026
- L0-1away to AC Oulu2 August 2026
- W1-0Lahti26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Turku PS20 July 2026
- L1-2away to FF Jaro4 July 2026
HNK Rijeka
- W2-1Rudes2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ilves | Veikkausliiga | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 22 |
| 4 | HNK Rijeka | HNL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables
Leading scorers
Ilves
- J. Kanga4 goals3 assists
- T. Hytönen4 goals
HNK Rijeka
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ilves carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.61 for HNK Rijeka. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Ilves L-W-W-L-W; HNK Rijeka W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Ilves and 1.25 for HNK Rijeka. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ilves rate 0.88 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Rijeka rate 0.58 and 1.00.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ilves the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Ilves against 1.25 for HNK Rijeka. Ilves's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1 for HNK Rijeka.