13 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Ilves vs HNK Rijeka UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Tammelan Stadion, Tampere
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Ilves 1-1 HNK Rijeka.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Ilves, 25% draw, 28% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: HNK Rijeka 1–0 Ilves (6 Aug) →

HNK Rijeka went through 2–1 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Ilves at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ilves5%Draw92%HNK Rijeka3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁S. Suvanneout: S. Baranov
59'
⚽S. Baranovassist: T. Hytonen
64'
🔁Y. Raapout: Y. Sacko
67'
70'
⚽J. Lasickas
71'
🔁J. Lasickasout: A. Gojak
🔁T. Hytonenout: R. Riski
81'
🔁A. Popovitchout: H. Coulibaly
81'
🔁V. Kumpuout: G. Bamba
81'
84'
🔁J. Puljicout: I. Cubelic
87'
Mladen Devetak
90'
🔁D. Adu Adjeiout: A. Juric

Match stats — Ilves vs HNK Rijeka

45%Possession55%
4On target5
4Corners3

Line-ups

Ilves 4-3-3
  • 12F. KrkalicG
  • 4O. Pettersson
  • 5S. VaisanenD
  • 24V. KumpuD
  • 3M. RaleD
  • 22O. MultalaM
  • 14A. PopovitchM
  • 6Y. RaapD
  • 30J. KangaM
  • 9T. HytonenF
  • 25S. SuvanneD
Substitutes
  • 1O. VirtanenG
  • 8M. StjopinM
  • 10R. RiskiF
  • 11H. CoulibalyF
  • 13K. WalliusM
  • 15L. Ala-MyllymakiM
  • 17S. BaranovM
  • 19G. BambaD
  • 28J. KiloM
Coach: Camilo Speranza
HNK Rijeka 4-2-3-1
  • 99A. TodorovicG
  • 22A. OrecD
  • 45A. MajstorovicD
  • 5A. BarcoM
  • 34M. DevetakD
  • 26T. DantasM
  • 6B. PavicM
  • 23J. LasickasD
  • 21J. PuljicF
  • 4N. JankovicM
  • 18D. Adu AdjeiF
Substitutes
  • 1V. KovacG
  • 13I. VekicG
  • 3M. ZivkovicD
  • 8I. CubelicM
  • 10T. FrukM
  • 11G. RukavinaM
  • 14A. GojakM
  • 15G. GrulovicF
  • 37C. SahoF
Coach: Matjaz Kek

Form going into Ilves vs HNK Rijeka

Ilves

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Mariehamn9 August 2026
  • L0-1away to HNK Rijeka6 August 2026
  • W1-0Stjarnan30 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Stjarnan23 July 2026

HNK Rijeka

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Ilves6 August 2026
  • W2-1Rudes2 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Derry City30 July 2026
  • W1-0Derry City23 July 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 4 matches for Ilves had two goals or fewer.
  • HNK Rijeka won every one of these 4 matches.
  • HNK Rijeka scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • HNK Rijeka kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Ilves vs HNK Rijeka

  • 6 August 2026HNK Rijeka 1–0 IlvesUEFA Europa Conference League

Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.

Leading scorers: Ilves and HNK Rijeka

Ilves

No leading scorers listed yet.

HNK Rijeka

GoalsAssists

  • T. Fruk54
  • D. Adu-Adjei43
  • S. Vignato41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ilves and HNK Rijeka drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Ilves at 47% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: S. Baranov 64' for Ilves, J. Lasickas 70' for HNK Rijeka.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.