Finland vs Albania UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Finland 2-1 Albania.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Finland, 31% draw, 29% Albania — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Finland at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Finland vs Albania
Line-ups
- 1L. HrádeckýG
- 3A. StåhlD
- 4T. MiettinenD
- 5S. MiettinenD
- 13J. LähteenmäkiD
- 14K. KairinenM
- 11A. MarhievM
- 10L. WaltaM
- 9A. SvanbäckF
- 20J. PohjanpaloF
- 22D. HåkansF
- 19B. KällmanF
- 21O. JukkolaM
- 23L. BergströmG
- 6G. KamaraM
- 18T. KeskinenF
- 17R. MahutaD
- 2M. PeltolaD
- 12V. SinisaloG
- 16A. SuhonenM
- 1E. BerishaG
- 18A. IsmajliD
- 6B. DjimsitiD
- 3M. MitajD
- 4E. HysajM
- 20Y. RamadaniM
- 8K. AsllaniM
- 22S. PiliosM
- 10E. MuçiF
- 7R. ManajF
- 21A. HoxhaF
- 23M. DajsinaniG
- 19M. DakuF
- 2F. FetaiM
- 15M. KumbullaD
- 9A. MehmetiM
- 17T. SeferiF
- 16J. ShehuM
- 12A. SherriG
- 14C. ShpendiF
Form going into Finland vs Albania
Finland
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0Belarus29 September 2026
- W7-0away to San Marino26 September 2026
Albania
UEFA Nations League
- W3-0away to San Marino29 September 2026
- W2-0Belarus26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Finland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 7 |
| 1 | Albania | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Finland and Albania
Finland
GoalsAssists
- L. Walta41
- J. Pohjanpalo30
Albania
GoalsAssists
- K. Asllani31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Finland beat Albania 2–1. The model had made a win for Finland its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Rey Manaj 4' for Albania, Leo Walta 26' for Finland, Leo Walta 71' for Finland. Sent off: Etrit Berisha (Albania) 22'.
How the call on Finland v Albania has moved
First published on 19 Sep at 36% / 32% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 40% / 31% / 29%: the biggest move is Finland's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Finland win40%▲ +4
- Draw31%▼ −1
- Albania win29%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.