Chesterfield
vs
Tranmere
League Two prediction
Our model says: Chesterfield 1–0 Tranmere
The model makes it 48% Chesterfield, 28% draw, 24% Tranmere — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Chesterfield 1.82, Tranmere 0.93.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Chesterfield vs Tranmere
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chesterfield at 48% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chesterfield vs Tranmere
Chesterfield
- W2-0York19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Oldham12 September 2026
- D3-3Barnet5 September 2026
- D1-1Gillingham1 September 2026
- L1-2away to Rotherham29 August 2026
Tranmere
- D0-0away to Exeter City19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Gillingham12 September 2026
- W2-0Oldham5 September 2026
- D2-2Rotherham1 September 2026
- D2-2away to Newport County29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Chesterfield | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Tranmere | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Chesterfield vs Tranmere
- 11 April 2026Chesterfield 1–1 TranmereLeague Two
- 25 October 2025Tranmere 1–1 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 5 April 2025Tranmere 4–0 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 7 December 2024Chesterfield 3–0 TranmereLeague Two
- 1 December 2012Tranmere 2–1 ChesterfieldFA Cup
- 14 August 2012Chesterfield 1–2 TranmereLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Chesterfield and Tranmere
Chesterfield
- L. Bonis3 goals1 assists
Tranmere
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Chesterfield carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.01 for Tranmere. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for Chesterfield and 0.93 for Tranmere. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chesterfield rate 0.53 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tranmere rate 0.44 and 2.36.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chesterfield a 3% chance of the title and Tranmere 1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chesterfield the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Chesterfield against 0.93 for Tranmere. Chesterfield's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/2.36 for Tranmere.