Iceland vs Bulgaria UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Iceland 3-0 Bulgaria.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Iceland, 30% draw, 33% Bulgaria — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Iceland at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Iceland vs Bulgaria
Line-ups
- 12H. ValdimarssonG
- 18M. AndersonD
- 17A. GunnarssonD
- 23H. MagnússonD
- 19M. EllertssonD
- 21A. SigurðssonM
- 6A. BaldurssonM
- 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
- 11J. ÞorsteinssonM
- 7H. HaraldssonM
- 9O. ÓskarssonF
- 3D. GrétarssonD
- 13A. EinarssonG
- 22A. GuðjohnsenF
- 15D. GuðjohnsenF
- 20Þ. HelgasonM
- 4V. PálssonD
- 1R. RúnarssonG
- 10G. SigurðssonM
- 16S. ÞórðarsonM
- 1D. NaumovG
- 19I. TuritsovD
- 5K. DimitrovD
- 13S. VelkovD
- 21D. VelkovskiD
- 20L. PetkovM
- 8A. KraevM
- 4I. GruevM
- 11G. RusevM
- 14A. ChandarovM
- 9A. IlievF
- 23A. BozhevG
- 6E. TsenovD
- 2Y. StoyanovM
- 22K. StoyanovM
- 15H. PetrovD
- 16M. PetkovF
- 17V. NikolovF
- 12D. MitovG
- 3A. HristovD
Form going into Iceland vs Bulgaria
Iceland
UEFA Nations League
- W3-0away to Luxembourg29 September 2026
- D1-1Estonia26 September 2026
Bulgaria
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0Estonia29 September 2026
- L1-2Luxembourg26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 8 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Iceland and Bulgaria
Iceland
GoalsAssists
- O. Óskarsson32
Bulgaria
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Iceland beat Bulgaria 3–0. The model had made a win for Iceland its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Orri Steinn Óskarsson 37' for Iceland, Orri Steinn Óskarsson 60' for Iceland, Mikael Ellertsson 90' for Iceland.
How the call on Iceland v Bulgaria has moved
First published on 19 Sep at 24% / 27% / 49% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 37% / 30% / 33%: the biggest move is Bulgaria's chance of winning, down 16 points.
- Iceland win37%▲ +13
- Draw30%▲ +3
- Bulgaria win33%▼ −16
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.