Fortaleza EC
vs
Nautico Recife
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Fortaleza EC 1-1 Nautico Recife.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Fortaleza EC, 25% draw, 22% Nautico Recife — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Fortaleza EC 2.26, Nautico Recife 1.01.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Model insights: Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fortaleza EC at 53% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife
Line-ups
- 1João RicardoG
- 22MaíltonD
- 3Lucas GazalD
- 6T. CardonaD
- 12Kaio HenriqueD
- 88Lucas SashaM
- 5PierreM
- 32Luiz FernandoM
- 11VitinhoF
- 17Nathan FogaçaF
- 16Pedro HenriqueF
- 13Maurício Júnior Lima RodriguesD
- 8RonaldM
- 29RodrigoM
- 38LuccaM
- 75RodriguinhoM
- 77Paulo BayaF
- 31WellitonF
- 25Vinícius SilvestreG
- 10Lucas CrispimM
- 1MurielG
- 2ArnaldoD
- 15Léo ÍndioD
- 3AlbertoD
- 6RyanD
- 8WendersonM
- 41SamuelM
- 29Júnior TodinhoM
- 10Jean CarlosM
- 7ViníciusM
- 72DerekF
- 34WandersonD
- 19Kaua Almeida da CostaF
- 11Victor AndradeF
- 24B. BorasiM
- 5AuremirM
- 60Luiz PauloD
- 55G. GuruceagaG
- 46Gustavo HenriqueD
- 93Reginaldo LopesD
Form going into Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
- D2-2Athletic Club MG27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Londrina20 September 2026
- D1-1Ceara13 September 2026
- W1-0Avai9 September 2026
Nautico Recife
- W3-1Sport Recife26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Cuiaba22 September 2026
- D3-3Operario-PR15 September 2026
- L1-2away to America Mineiro9 September 2026
What these results say
- Fortaleza EC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Fortaleza EC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Fortaleza EC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Nautico Recife conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Nautico Recife had three goals or more.
- Nautico Recife failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fortaleza EC | 31 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 53 |
| 13 | Nautico Recife | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife
- 3 October 2026Fortaleza EC 1–1 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 9 June 2026Nautico Recife 0–1 Fortaleza ECSerie B
- 26 February 2023Fortaleza EC 2–1 Nautico RecifeCopa do Nordeste
- 26 March 2022Fortaleza EC 2–0 Nautico RecifeCopa do Nordeste
- 12 February 2022Nautico Recife 2–2 Fortaleza ECCopa do Nordeste
- 14 March 2020Nautico Recife 0–3 Fortaleza ECCopa do Nordeste
Leading scorers: Fortaleza EC and Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
- Maílton7 goals1 assist
- Vitinho6 goals
Nautico Recife
- Vinícius8 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.26 goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.01 for Nautico Recife; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Vinicius 5' (Nautico Recife), Luiz Fernando 43' (Fortaleza EC).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fortaleza EC the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Fortaleza EC against 1.01 for Nautico Recife. Fortaleza EC's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.78 for Nautico Recife.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.