Cuiaba
vs
Ponte Preta
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Cuiaba 2–0 Ponte Preta
The model makes it 66% Cuiaba, 22% draw, 12% Ponte Preta — fair odds of 1.52, 4.55 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Cuiaba 2.59, Ponte Preta 0.55.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Cuiaba are 11th on 43 points from 30 games; Ponte Preta are bottom on 13 points from 30 games — Serie B.
- Cuiaba have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to CRB.
- Ponte Preta have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Botafogo SP.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 June 2026, ended Ponte Preta 1–2 Cuiaba.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cuiaba at 66% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta
Cuiaba
- L0-3away to CRB27 September 2026
- W3-0Nautico Recife22 September 2026
- D1-1away to Novorizontino13 September 2026
- W3-0Athletic Club MG8 September 2026
- L0-2away to Criciuma4 September 2026
Ponte Preta
- L0-2away to Botafogo SP29 September 2026
- W1-0CRB20 September 2026
- L0-6away to Londrina15 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sport Recife11 September 2026
- L0-2São Bernardo6 September 2026
What these results say
- Ponte Preta failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ponte Preta failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ponte Preta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cuiaba | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 43 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 30 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 17 | 64 | -47 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta
- 9 June 2026Ponte Preta 1–2 CuiabaSerie B
- 11 January 2021Ponte Preta 2–2 CuiabaSerie B
- 9 October 2020Cuiaba 2–1 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 28 September 2019Ponte Preta 3–0 CuiabaSerie B
- 1 June 2019Cuiaba 1–3 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 2 March 2017Ponte Preta 1–1 CuiabaCopa Do Brasil
A clear gap in the ratings
Cuiaba carry a model rating of 6.42 against 5.79 for Ponte Preta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.59 goals for Cuiaba and 0.55 for Ponte Preta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cuiaba rate 0.58 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ponte Preta rate 0.33 and 2.75.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cuiaba the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.59 expected goals for Cuiaba against 0.55 for Ponte Preta. Cuiaba's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.33/2.75 for Ponte Preta.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cuiaba at home · Ponte Preta away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Cuiaba 30, Ponte Preta 30.
Cuiaba score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Ponte Preta have let in 6 there.
Ponte Preta score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Cuiaba have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Cuiaba
- at Vila Nova7 Oct · Serie Bwin 29%
- vs Avai11 Oct · Serie Bwin 47%
- at Londrina20 Oct · Serie Bwin 35%
- at America Mineiro24 Oct · Serie Bwin 42%
- vs São Bernardo31 Oct · Serie Bwin 40%
Ponte Preta
- vs Juventude7 Oct · Serie Bwin 16%
- at Novorizontino12 Oct · Serie Bwin 8%
- vs Atletico Goianiense16 Oct · Serie Bwin 17%
- vs Fortaleza EC24 Oct · Serie Bwin 15%
- at Criciuma31 Oct · Serie Bwin 13%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.