Belarus vs San Marino UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Belarus 4-0 San Marino.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Belarus, 24% draw, 14% San Marino — fair odds of 1.61, 4.17 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Belarus at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Belarus vs San Marino
Line-ups
- 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
- 6R. BegunovD
- 20Z. VolkovD
- 13K. GomanovD
- 2K. PecheninD
- 9M. EbongM
- 14E. YablonskiyM
- 22A. KontsevoyM
- 10V. GromykoM
- 8T. SimanenkaM
- 23T. MelnichenkoF
- 11G. BarkovskiyF
- 21F. LapoukhovG
- 4V. BocherovM
- 15D. GalyataM
- 12A. KudravetsG
- 16A. KovalevM
- 17V. LisakovichF
- 5V. KalininD
- 19A. LukashovD
- 1E. ColomboG
- 2G. BenvenutiD
- 5M. CevoliD
- 15M. PasoliniD
- 3S. GiocondiD
- 10S. ZannoniM
- 8L. CapicchioniM
- 17A. GolinucciM
- 21L. LazzariM
- 11N. GiacopettiF
- 9N. NanniF
- 22M. MularoniM
- 6D. RossiD
- 12A. TosiD
- 23M. De AngelisG
- 4F. FabbriD
- 14Fausto Marino Salicioni OrtizF
- 20G. BugliD
- 18Balda Enea DellaM
- 13Lyes HoëlG
Form going into Belarus vs San Marino
Belarus
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0away to Finland29 September 2026
- L0-2away to Albania26 September 2026
San Marino
UEFA Nations League
- L0-3Albania29 September 2026
- L0-7Finland26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Belarus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 16 | -15 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Belarus vs San Marino
- 18 November 2018San Marino 0–2 BelarusUEFA Nations League
- 8 September 2018Belarus 5–0 San MarinoUEFA Nations League
The result against the call
Belarus beat San Marino 4–0. The model had made a win for Belarus its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Artem Kontsevoy 46' for Belarus, Artem Shumanskiy 65' for Belarus, Max Ebong 68' for Belarus, Artem Kontsevoy 88' for Belarus.
How the call on Belarus v San Marino has moved
First published on 19 Sep at 60% / 24% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 62% / 24% / 14%: the biggest move is Belarus's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Belarus win62%▲ +2
- Draw24%=
- San Marino win14%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.