Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Corinthians 0-0 Atletico Paranaense.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Corinthians, 24% draw, 42% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 2.94, 4.17 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Paranaense at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 20Pedro MilansD
- 5André RamalhoD
- 14RanieleD
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 19André CarrilloM
- 29AllanM
- 61DieguinhoM
- 23Matheus PereiraM
- 52Zakaria LabyadM
- 77Jesse LingardF
- 37Kaio CésarF
- 9Yuri AlbertoF
- 7Breno BidonM
- 8Rodrigo GarroM
- 49André LuizM
- 51KauêG
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 55Iago MachadoD
- 23SantosG
- 29Gastón BenavídezD
- 22Carlos TeránD
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 12GilbertoM
- 16JádsonM
- 27Juan PortillaM
- 26ClaudinhoM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 7Steven MendozaF
- 9Kevin ViverosF
- 6Leonardo DerikD
- 53DuduM
- 8João CruzM
- 19Jorge RivaldoF
- 33Juan Felipe AguirreD
- 42Matheus SoaresG
- 3LéoD
- 2Gilberto JuniorD
- 11IsaacF
Form going into Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
- D1-1away to Bahia26 July 2026
- W3-0Remo23 July 2026
Atletico Paranaense
- W2-0Internacional25 July 2026
- W2-1away to Sao Paulo23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 32 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense
- 19 February 2026Atletico Paranaense 0–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 11 September 2025Corinthians 2–0 Atletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil
- 28 August 2025Atletico Paranaense 0–1 CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil
- 17 October 2024Corinthians 5–2 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 23 June 2024Atletico Paranaense 1–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 1 November 2023Corinthians 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Corinthians and Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Atletico Paranaense
- K. Viveros18 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.