Corinthians
vs
Atletico Paranaense
The model makes it 36% Corinthians, 24% draw, 40% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 2.78, 4.17 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Corinthians 1.54, Atletico Paranaense 1.63.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense
- 19 February 2026Atletico Paranaense 0–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 11 September 2025Corinthians 2–0 Atletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil
- 28 August 2025Atletico Paranaense 0–1 CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil
- 17 October 2024Corinthians 5–2 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 23 June 2024Atletico Paranaense 1–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 1 November 2023Corinthians 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Paranaense the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Corinthians against 1.63 for Atletico Paranaense. Corinthians's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/1.06 for Atletico Paranaense.