Vitoria
vs
Palmeiras
Final score: Vitoria 0-4 Palmeiras.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Vitoria, 28% draw, 45% Palmeiras — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Vitoria 1.05, Palmeiras 1.43.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Match stats: Vitoria vs Palmeiras
Vitoria had 32% possession, 10 shots (3 on target), 6 corners, 0.49 expected goals; Palmeiras had 68% possession, 16 shots (5 on target), 1 corners, 1.43 expected goals.
Goals: Mauricio 45+1' for Palmeiras, Fabiano (own goal) 45+6' for Palmeiras, J. Arias 70' for Palmeiras, R. Sosa 84' for Palmeiras.
Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Palmeiras
- 30 July 2026Vitoria 0–4 PalmeirasSerie A
- 5 February 2026Palmeiras 5–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 19 November 2025Palmeiras 0–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 3 August 2025Vitoria 2–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 27 July 2024Palmeiras 0–2 VitoriaSerie A
- 14 April 2024Vitoria 0–1 PalmeirasSerie A
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palmeiras the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Vitoria against 1.43 for Palmeiras. Vitoria's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.09 for Palmeiras.