Vitoria vs Palmeiras Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vitoria 0-4 Palmeiras.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Vitoria, 28% draw, 48% Palmeiras — fair odds of 4.17, 3.57 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vitoria vs Palmeiras
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 70Fabiano SouzaD
- 25CacáD
- 2Emanuel BrítezD
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 13RamonD
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 44Gabriel BaralhasM
- 95Caique GonçalvesM
- 6Emmanuel MartínezM
- 91Renê SousaF
- 88Zé VitorM
- 12Diego TarziaD
- 8Tomás PochettinoM
- 83JamersonD
- 15WalaceD
- 71Yuri SenaG
- 98MateusinhoD
- 33ErickF
- 11OsvaldoF
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 26MuriloD
- 15Gustavo GómezD
- 2Alexander BarbozaD
- 40AllanM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 22Joaquín PiquerezM
- 11Jhon AriasF
- 18MauricioF
- 19Ramón SosaF
- 12KhellvenD
- 32Emiliano MartínezM
- 42José Manuel LópezF
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 21KaiqueG
- 43Luis BenedettiD
- 4Agustín GiayD
Form going into Vitoria vs Palmeiras
Vitoria
- L0-2away to Remo26 July 2026
- D0-0away to Botafogo23 July 2026
Palmeiras
- L1-2Atletico Mineiro26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Coritiba22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Vitoria | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 33 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 56 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Palmeiras
- 30 July 2026Vitoria 0–4 PalmeirasSerie A
- 5 February 2026Palmeiras 5–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 19 November 2025Palmeiras 0–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 3 August 2025Vitoria 2–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 27 July 2024Palmeiras 0–2 VitoriaSerie A
- 14 April 2024Vitoria 0–1 PalmeirasSerie A
Leading scorers: Vitoria and Palmeiras
Vitoria
- Rene8 goals1 assists
Palmeiras
- J. López8 goals4 assists
- Maurício7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.