Vitoria vs Palmeiras Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vitoria 0-4 Palmeiras.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Vitoria, 28% draw, 48% Palmeiras — fair odds of 4.17, 3.57 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vitoria vs Palmeiras
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 70Fabiano SouzaD
- 25CacáD
- 2Emanuel BrítezD
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 13RamonD
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 44Gabriel BaralhasM
- 95Caique GonçalvesM
- 6Emmanuel MartínezM
- 91Renê SousaF
- 88Zé VitorM
- 12Diego TarziaD
- 8Tomás PochettinoM
- 83JamersonD
- 15WalaceD
- 71Yuri SenaG
- 98MateusinhoD
- 33ErickF
- 11OsvaldoF
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 26MuriloD
- 15Gustavo GómezD
- 2Alexander BarbozaD
- 40AllanM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 22Joaquín PiquerezM
- 11Jhon AriasF
- 18MauricioF
- 19Ramón SosaF
- 12KhellvenD
- 32Emiliano MartínezM
- 42José Manuel LópezF
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 21KaiqueG
- 43Luis BenedettiD
- 4Agustín GiayD
Form going into Vitoria vs Palmeiras
Vitoria
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Remo26 July 2026
- D0-0away to Botafogo23 July 2026
Palmeiras
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Atletico Mineiro26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Coritiba22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 38 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 33 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 56 | 22 | +34 | 70 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Palmeiras
- 5 February 2026Palmeiras 5–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 19 November 2025Palmeiras 0–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 3 August 2025Vitoria 2–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 27 July 2024Palmeiras 0–2 VitoriaSerie A
- 14 April 2024Vitoria 0–1 PalmeirasSerie A
Leading scorers: Vitoria and Palmeiras
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene101
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López96
- Maurício91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Palmeiras won 4–0 at Vitoria. The model had made a win for Palmeiras its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Mauricio 45+1' for Palmeiras, Fabiano (own goal) 45+6' for Palmeiras, J. Arias 70' for Palmeiras, R. Sosa 84' for Palmeiras. Sent off: Caca (Vitoria) 37', Luan Candido (Vitoria) 40'. On expected goals it finished 0.49–1.43.