Fluminense
vs
Bahia
Final score: Fluminense 0-0 Bahia.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Fluminense, 24% draw, 21% Bahia — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Fluminense 1.85, Bahia 1.07.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Match stats: Fluminense vs Bahia
Fluminense had 58% possession, 24 shots (11 on target), 8 corners, 2.25 expected goals; Bahia had 42% possession, 10 shots (0 on target), 1 corners, 0.43 expected goals.
Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Bahia
- 30 July 2026Fluminense 0–0 BahiaSerie A
- 12 July 2026Fluminense 2–0 BahiaFriendlies Clubs
- 5 February 2026Bahia 1–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 7 December 2025Fluminense 2–0 BahiaSerie A
- 10 September 2025Fluminense 2–0 BahiaCopa Do Brasil
- 28 August 2025Bahia 1–0 FluminenseCopa Do Brasil
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fluminense the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Fluminense against 1.07 for Bahia. Fluminense's attack/defence rating is 0.98/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1 for Bahia.