Fluminense vs Bahia Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Fluminense 0-0 Bahia.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Fluminense, 25% draw, 50% Bahia — fair odds of 4.00, 4.00 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bahia at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fluminense vs Bahia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1FábioG
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 4IgnácioD
- 22Juan Pablo FreytesD
- 6RenêD
- 16NonatoM
- 8MartinelliM
- 17Agustín CanobbioM
- 32Luciano AcostaM
- 30Yeferson SoteldoM
- 7HulkF
- 3Thiago SilvaD
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 35HérculesM
- 11Jefferson SavarinoF
- 14Germán CanoF
- 27Marcelo PitalugaG
- 23GugaD
- 25AlissonM
- 94OtávioM
- 1RonaldoG
- 31Román GómezD
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 21Santiago Ramos MingoD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 5Nicolás AcevedoM
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 7AdemirM
- 6Jean LucasM
- 16Erick PulgaM
- 9Alejo VélizF
- 15Michel AraújoM
- 10Everton RibeiroM
- 63David MartinsM
- 57Kauê FurquimM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 17Guido HerreraG
- 43Luiz GustavoD
- 4KanuD
- 67Wendel PassosM
Form going into Fluminense vs Bahia
Fluminense
- D1-1away to Gremio26 July 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino17 July 2026
Bahia
- D1-1Corinthians26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro21 July 2026
- W2-0Chapecoense17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 41 | 35 | +6 | 45 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Bahia
- 30 July 2026Fluminense 0–0 BahiaSerie A
- 12 July 2026Fluminense 2–0 BahiaFriendlies Clubs
- 5 February 2026Bahia 1–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 7 December 2025Fluminense 2–0 BahiaSerie A
- 10 September 2025Fluminense 2–0 BahiaCopa Do Brasil
- 28 August 2025Bahia 1–0 FluminenseCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Fluminense and Bahia
Fluminense
- John Kennedy9 goals1 assists
Bahia
- Luciano Juba8 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.