Sao Paulo
vs
Santos
The model makes it 61% Sao Paulo, 19% draw, 20% Santos — fair odds of 1.64, 5.26 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Sao Paulo 2.55, Santos 1.42.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Santos
- 4 February 2026Santos 1–1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 31 January 2026Sao Paulo 2–0 SantosPaulista - A1
- 21 September 2025Santos 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 20 April 2025Sao Paulo 2–1 SantosSerie A
- 1 February 2025Santos 3–1 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
- 14 February 2024Sao Paulo 0–1 SantosPaulista - A1
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sao Paulo the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Sao Paulo against 1.42 for Santos. Sao Paulo's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.73 for Santos.