29 July 2026, 20:00 UTC

Sao Paulo vs Santos Serie A prediction & result

Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo
Referee: M. Delgado
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Sao Paulo 1-2 Santos.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Sao Paulo, 18% draw, 28% Santos — fair odds of 1.85, 5.56 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sao Paulo at 54% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 707 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sao Paulo0%Draw8%Santos92%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Ryan Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos Silva
31'
33'
Lucas Veríssimo
⚽Luciano (pen)
34'
36'
⚽Gabriel Barbosaassist: Gonzalo Escobar
Luciano
41'
45'
Christian Oliva
45'
🔁Álvaro Barrealout: Philippe Coutinho
45'
🔁Vinicius Moreira de Limaout: Gustavo Henrique
54'
🔁Arthur Meloout: Gabriel Menino
54'
⚽Gabriel Barbosaassist: Everton
🔁Ryan Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos Silvaout: Gustavo Santana
64'
🔁Damian Bobadillaout: Danielzinho
64'
🔁Rafael Tolóiout: Newton
64'
🔁Iago Amaral Borduchiout: Wendell
67'
🔁Pedro Limaout: Victor Sá
73'
76'
Everton
76'
🔁Evertonout: Rony
86'
🔁Gabriel Barbosaout: Thaciano

Match stats — Sao Paulo vs Santos

60%Possession40%
20Shots9
8On target4
14Corners1

Line-ups

Sao Paulo 4-3-3
  • 31Carlos CoronelG
  • 32Pedro LimaD
  • 5R. ArboledaD
  • 2R. TolóiD
  • 12IagoD
  • 29Pablo MaiaM
  • 8Marcos AntônioM
  • 16D. BobadillaM
  • 37ArturF
  • 10LucianoF
  • 49Ryan FranciscoF
Substitutes
  • 17André SilvaF
  • 94DanielzinhoM
  • 11FerreiraF
  • 19Lucas RamonD
  • 54Osorio LuisD
  • 28NewtonM
  • 46Pedro FerreiraM
  • 35SabinoD
  • 43G. SantanaF
Coach: Dorival Júnior
Santos 4-2-3-1
  • 1DiógenesG
  • 23RodineiD
  • 4Lucas VeríssimoD
  • 15Willian ArãoD
  • 31G. EscobarD
  • 28C. OlivaM
  • 6ArthurM
  • 22Á. BarrealM
  • 45LimaM
  • 7EvertonM
  • 9Gabriel BarbosaF
Substitutes
  • 34João PauloG
  • 5João SchmidtM
  • 18Igor ViniciusD
  • 81S. PierriM
  • 38Rafael GonzagaD
  • 33RonyF
  • 16ThacianoM
  • 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
  • 25Gabriel MeninoM
Coach: Cuca

Form going into Sao Paulo vs Santos

Sao Paulo

  • D1-1away to Flamengo26 July 2026
  • L1-2Atletico Paranaense23 July 2026

Santos

  • D2-2Chapecoense25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Sao Paulo28106123332+136
8Santos2811894341+241

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Santos

  • 2 October 2026Sao Paulo 1–2 SantosSerie A
  • 4 February 2026Santos 1–1 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 31 January 2026Sao Paulo 2–0 SantosPaulista - A1
  • 21 September 2025Santos 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 20 April 2025Sao Paulo 2–1 SantosSerie A
  • 1 February 2025Santos 3–1 Sao PauloPaulista - A1

The full Sao Paulo vs Santos record →

Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Santos

Sao Paulo

  • Luciano9 goals1 assist
  • J. Calleri8 goals1 assist

Santos

  • Gabriel Barbosa13 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.