Al-Hilal
vs
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Al-Hilal 2–0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
The model makes it 64% Al-Hilal, 21% draw, 15% Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Al-Hilal 2.31, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.86.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,403 settled matches.
One-sided: Al-Hilal are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Al-Hilal are 3rd on 6 points from 2 games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are 4th on 6 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al-Hilal are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Al-Hazm.
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Al Ain.
- Last 5 meetings: Al-Hilal 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 February 2026, ended Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0–0 Al-Hilal.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Hilal vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Hilal at 64% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 1,060 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Hilal vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Al-Hilal
- W2-0away to Al Sadd13 October 2026
- W2-1Al-Gharafa15 September 2026
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- W2-1away to Al-Ittihad13 October 2026
- W1-0Tractor Sazi14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al-Hilal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Hilal vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- 9 February 2026Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0–0 Al-HilalAFC Champions League Elite
- 20 February 2023Al-Hilal 3–1 Shabab Al Ahli DubaiAFC Champions League
- 30 April 2021Al-Hilal 0–2 Shabab Al Ahli DubaiAFC Champions League
- 18 April 2021Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0–2 Al-HilalAFC Champions League
- 17 February 2020Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1–2 Al-HilalAFC Champions League
Leading scorers: Al-Hilal and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Al-Hilal
GoalsAssists
- Rúben Neves21
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
GoalsAssists
- S. Azmoun20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al-Hilal carry a model rating of 7.04 against 6.73 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.31 goals for Al-Hilal and 0.86 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Hilal rate 1.23 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai rate 0.82 and 1.05.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Hilal the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Al-Hilal against 0.86 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Al-Hilal's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.05 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Hilal at home · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Hilal 9, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 6.
Al-Hilal score most often in the 16–30 minute window (7 goals); Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have let in 1 there.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Al-Hilal have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Hilal
- at Al-Ettifaq5 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 61%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- at Sharjah FC7 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 53%
- vs Ajman20 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 65%
- vs Al-Qadisiyah FC24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.