Aubagne
vs
Amiens
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Aubagne 0–1 Amiens
The model makes it 21% Aubagne, 30% draw, 49% Amiens — fair odds of 4.76, 3.33 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (16%).
Expected goals: Aubagne 0.74, Amiens 1.41.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,126 settled matches.
One-sided: Amiens are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Aubagne's rating is built from 42 Ligue 3 matches and Amiens's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Aubagne are 16th on 7 points from 10 games; Amiens are 7th on 16 points from 10 games — Ligue 3.
- Aubagne have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Le Puy Foot.
- Amiens are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Valenciennes.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aubagne vs Amiens
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Amiens at 49% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aubagne vs Amiens
Aubagne
Ligue 3
- L0-1Le Puy Foot17 October 2026
- L1-3away to La Roche VF3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Fleury 9126 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rouen19 September 2026
- L1-2Concarneau12 September 2026
Amiens
Ligue 3
- D1-1away to Valenciennes17 October 2026
- W3-0Villefranche3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Quevilly26 September 2026
- W2-0Orleans19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Cannes10 September 2026
What these results say
- Aubagne conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aubagne failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amiens went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Amiens scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Amiens had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Aubagne | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 7 |
| 7 | Amiens | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Aubagne carry a model rating of 5.99 against 6.48 for Amiens. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.74 goals for Aubagne and 1.41 for Amiens. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aubagne rate 0.39 in attack and 2.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Amiens rate 0.53 and 1.17.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aubagne a 0% chance of the title and Amiens 27.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Amiens the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Aubagne against 1.41 for Amiens. Aubagne's attack/defence rating is 0.39/2.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.17 for Amiens.
How the model reaches 49% for Amiens to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Amiens to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Aubagne's ratings add 45 points and Amiens's ratings take away 25 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Aubagne's ratings74%+45
- Amiens's ratings49%−25
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aubagne at home · Amiens away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Aubagne 10, Amiens 10.
Aubagne score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Amiens have let in 1 there.
Amiens score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Aubagne have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Aubagne
- at Cannes21 Nov · Ligue 3win 15%
- vs Orleans5 Dec · Ligue 3win 37%
- at Quevilly12 Dec · Ligue 3win 23%
- vs Villefranche16 Jan · Ligue 3win 47%
Amiens
- vs Caen19 Nov · Ligue 3win 55%
- at Bourg-en-bresse 015 Dec · Ligue 3win 55%
- vs Gobelins12 Dec · Ligue 3win 60%
- at Concarneau16 Jan · Ligue 3win 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.