Boca Juniors
vs
River Plate
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Boca Juniors 1–0 River Plate
The model makes it 48% Boca Juniors, 28% draw, 24% River Plate — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Boca Juniors 1.56, River Plate 0.93.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Boca Juniors are 2nd in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A on 24 points from 13 games; River Plate are 9th in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B on 17 points from 12 games.
- Boca Juniors are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Talleres Cordoba.
- River Plate have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Sarmiento Junin.
- Last 6 meetings: Boca Juniors 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended River Plate 0–1 Boca Juniors.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Boca Juniors vs River Plate
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Boca Juniors at 48% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Boca Juniors vs River Plate
Boca Juniors
- W2-1Talleres Cordoba17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Instituto Cordoba9 October 2026
- W3-0Union Santa Fe3 October 2026
- W2-0away to San Lorenzo20 September 2026
- W3-1Central Cordoba de Santiago12 September 2026
River Plate
- D1-1away to Sarmiento Junin14 October 2026
- W1-0Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto11 October 2026
- L1-2Huracan19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atletico Tucuman12 September 2026
- W3-1Independiente Rivadavia6 September 2026
What these results say
- Boca Juniors went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors won 4 of these 5 matches.
- River Plate scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- River Plate conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for River Plate.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 24 |
| 9 | River Plate | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Boca Juniors vs River Plate
Boca Juniors and River Plate have met 6 times in the records we hold, Boca Juniors has won 3 of them to River Plate's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Boca Juniors won the last one 1–0 on 19 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 |
| River Plate | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 19 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaRiver Plate 0–1 Boca Juniors - 9 Nov 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaBoca Juniors 2–0 River Plate - 27 Apr 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaRiver Plate 2–1 Boca Juniors - 21 Sep 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaBoca Juniors 0–1 River Plate - 21 Apr 2024
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalRiver Plate 2–3 Boca Juniors - 25 Feb 2024
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalRiver Plate 1–1 Boca Juniors
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 1.09 | 1.08 |
| River Plate | 0.93 | 1.16 |
Leading scorers: Boca Juniors and River Plate
Boca Juniors
GoalsAssists
- M. Merentiel92
River Plate
GoalsAssists
- G. Montiel72
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Boca Juniors carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.74 for River Plate. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Boca Juniors and 0.93 for River Plate. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Boca Juniors rate 1.09 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; River Plate rate 0.93 and 1.16.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,111 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Boca Juniors the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Boca Juniors against 0.93 for River Plate. Boca Juniors's attack/defence rating is 1.09/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.16 for River Plate.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Boca Juniors at home · River Plate away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Boca Juniors 29, River Plate 32.
Boca Juniors score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); River Plate have let in 8 there.
River Plate score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Boca Juniors have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Boca Juniors
- vs Defensa Y Justicia8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 53%
River Plate
- at Aldosivi8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.