30 July 2026, 18:45 UTC

Coleraine FC vs HJK Helsinki UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

The Showgrounds, Coleraine
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Coleraine FC 0-3 HJK Helsinki.

Before kick-off the model made it 87% Coleraine FC, 8% draw, 5% HJK Helsinki — fair odds of 1.15, 12.50 and 20.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Coleraine FC at 87% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Coleraine FC0%Draw1%HJK Helsinki99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽T. Meroassist: A. Cicale
34'
⚽A. Cicaleassist: T. Pukki
🔁D. Jarvisout: L. Ives
46'
46'
🔁L. Lingmanout: J. Kallinen
46'
🔁T. Cissokhoout: E. Levealahti
53'
⚽M. Gueyeassist: T. Pukki
Joel Cooper
54'
🔁M. Shevlinout: C. McMenamin
56'
🔁W. Patchingout: L. McGregor
65'
🔁S. Devineout: J. Henderson
65'
78'
🔁M. Kirilovout: A. Ring
78'
🔁T. Meroout: L. Moller
78'
🔁M. Gueyeout: S. Haarala

Line-ups

Coleraine FC 4-4-2
  • 12L. WebbG
  • 2L. KaneD
  • 21R. McDonaldM
  • 3D. JarvisD
  • 23B. DohertyD
  • 20S. DevineM
  • 11J. CooperM
  • 4D. BoyleM
  • 8W. PatchingM
  • 9M. ShevlinF
  • 22B. WylieM
Substitutes
  • 31Z. RobinsonG
  • 6K. Lyons-FosterD
  • 7L. McGregorM
  • 10C. MurrayM
  • 15L. IvesD
  • 17J. HendersonM
  • 24C. McMenaminF
  • 26C. HuntD
Coach: Ruaidhri Higgins
HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. OstG
  • 28M. YlitolvaD
  • 6V. TikkanenD
  • 3T. CissokhoD
  • 13K. SimojokiD
  • 10L. LingmanM
  • 32M. Gueye
  • 18T. MeroM
  • 17M. KirilovM
  • 7A. CicaleM
  • 20T. PukkiF
Substitutes
  • 44M. MarkovicG
  • 4A. RingM
  • 14L. MontanoD
  • 15J. KallinenM
  • 22L. MollerM
  • 24E. LevealahtiD
  • 29S. HaaralaF
Coach: Joonas Rantanen

Form going into Coleraine FC vs HJK Helsinki

Coleraine FC

  • L0-5away to HJK Helsinki23 July 2026

HJK Helsinki

  • W5-0Coleraine FC23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Coleraine FC vs HJK Helsinki

  • 23 July 2026HJK Helsinki 5–0 Coleraine FCUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Coleraine FC and HJK Helsinki

Coleraine FC

No leading scorers listed yet.

HJK Helsinki

  • M. Borchers4 goals
  • T. Pukki3 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.