30 July 2026, 18:45 UTC

Coleraine FC vs HJK Helsinki UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

The Showgrounds, Coleraine
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Coleraine FC 0-3 HJK Helsinki.

Before kick-off the model made it 87% Coleraine FC, 8% draw, 5% HJK Helsinki — fair odds of 1.15, 12.50 and 20.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: HJK Helsinki 5–0 Coleraine FC (23 Jul) →

HJK Helsinki went through 8–0 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Coleraine FC at 87% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Coleraine FC0%Draw1%HJK Helsinki99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽T. Meroassist: A. Cicale
34'
⚽A. Cicaleassist: T. Pukki
🔁D. Jarvisout: L. Ives
46'
46'
🔁L. Lingmanout: J. Kallinen
46'
🔁T. Cissokhoout: E. Levealahti
53'
⚽M. Gueyeassist: T. Pukki
Joel Cooper
54'
🔁M. Shevlinout: C. McMenamin
56'
🔁W. Patchingout: L. McGregor
65'
🔁S. Devineout: J. Henderson
65'
78'
🔁M. Kirilovout: A. Ring
78'
🔁T. Meroout: L. Moller
78'
🔁M. Gueyeout: S. Haarala

Line-ups

Coleraine FC 4-4-2
  • 12L. WebbG
  • 2L. KaneD
  • 21R. McDonaldM
  • 3D. JarvisD
  • 23B. DohertyD
  • 20S. DevineM
  • 11J. CooperM
  • 4D. BoyleM
  • 8W. PatchingM
  • 9M. ShevlinF
  • 22B. WylieM
Substitutes
  • 31Z. RobinsonG
  • 6K. Lyons-FosterD
  • 7L. McGregorM
  • 10C. MurrayM
  • 15L. IvesD
  • 17J. HendersonM
  • 24C. McMenaminF
  • 26C. HuntD
Coach: Ruaidhri Higgins
HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. OstG
  • 28M. YlitolvaD
  • 6V. TikkanenD
  • 3T. CissokhoD
  • 13K. SimojokiD
  • 10L. LingmanM
  • 32M. Gueye
  • 18T. MeroM
  • 17M. KirilovM
  • 7A. CicaleM
  • 20T. PukkiF
Substitutes
  • 44M. MarkovicG
  • 4A. RingM
  • 14L. MontanoD
  • 15J. KallinenM
  • 22L. MollerM
  • 24E. LevealahtiD
  • 29S. HaaralaF
Coach: Joonas Rantanen

Form going into Coleraine FC vs HJK Helsinki

Coleraine FC

All competitions we cover

  • L0-5away to HJK Helsinki23 July 2026

HJK Helsinki

All competitions we cover

  • W5-0Coleraine FC23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Coleraine FC vs HJK Helsinki

  • 23 July 2026HJK Helsinki 5–0 Coleraine FCUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Coleraine FC and HJK Helsinki

Coleraine FC

No leading scorers listed yet.

HJK Helsinki

GoalsAssists

  • M. Borchers143
  • T. Pukki43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HJK Helsinki won 3–0 at Coleraine FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Coleraine FC at 87% and given a win for HJK Helsinki 5%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 20 matches like this one. The goals: T. Mero 12' for HJK Helsinki, A. Cicale 34' for HJK Helsinki, M. Gueye 53' for HJK Helsinki.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.