Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Beitar Jerusalem 2-3 AEK Larnaca.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Beitar Jerusalem, 26% draw, 39% AEK Larnaca — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
The tie
Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: AEK Larnaca 0–1 Beitar Jerusalem (23 Jul) →
Beitar Jerusalem went through on penalties, after 3–3 on aggregate.
All Conference League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AEK Larnaca at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 55Miguel SilvaG
- 2N. AntwiD
- 4B. CarabaliD
- 5G. CohenD
- 16Y. CohenD
- 15N. MucheM
- 40Boris EnowM
- 26D. WorkoM
- 77O. AtziliF
- 19S. WeissmanF
- 9J. KaluF
- 22Y. OzerG
- 33D. NirG
- 7Y. ShuaF
- 8Z. Ben ShimolM
- 11T. MuzieM
- 13E. AnsahF
- 14R. ElimelechD
- 20O. DahanD
- 24N. MarkovitchM
- 51A. ParaskevasG
- 21MiramonM
- 15H. MilicevicD
- 4E. SaboritD
- 13Y. GurfinkelD
- 6I. PankovM
- 7Ledes GustavoM
- 14A. LayouniM
- 20J. RepasM
- 8Y. AmynM
- 11R. BajicF
- 1V. MufticG
- 99D. DemetriouG
- 9D. IvanovicM
- 10W. RubioM
- 17K. PileasD
- 22G. EkpoloD
- 25C. KyriakouM
- 29G. NaoumM
- 37D. GerasimouF
Form going into Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca
Beitar Jerusalem
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to AEK Larnaca23 July 2026
AEK Larnaca
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Beitar Jerusalem23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Beitar Jerusalem and AEK Larnaca in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | Ligat Ha'al | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 1. Division | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 16 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Ligat Ha'al · 1. Division
Head-to-head: Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca
- 23 July 2026AEK Larnaca 0–1 Beitar JerusalemUEFA Europa Conference League
- 22 July 2021Beitar Jerusalem 0–0 AEK LarnacaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Beitar Jerusalem and AEK Larnaca
Beitar Jerusalem
GoalsAssists
- O. Atzili32
- E. Ansah30
AEK Larnaca
No player in 1. Division's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AEK Larnaca won 3–2 at Beitar Jerusalem. The model had made a win for AEK Larnaca its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: H. Milicevic (penalty) 26' for AEK Larnaca, O. Atzili (penalty) 45' for Beitar Jerusalem, H. Milicevic 52' for AEK Larnaca, O. Atzili 87' for Beitar Jerusalem, R. Bajic 90' for AEK Larnaca.