UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round · 30 July 2026, 17:30 UTC

Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca

Stadionul Ilie Oană, Ploiesti

The model makes it 37% Beitar Jerusalem, 25% draw, 38% AEK Larnaca — fair odds of 2.70, 4.00 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Beitar Jerusalem 1.47, AEK Larnaca 1.50.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Low.

Model insights

60%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-2 8%2-1 8%

Head-to-head: Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca

  • 30 July 2026Beitar Jerusalem 1–1 AEK LarnacaUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 23 July 2026AEK Larnaca 0–1 Beitar JerusalemUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 22 July 2021Beitar Jerusalem 0–0 AEK LarnacaFriendlies Clubs
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives AEK Larnaca the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Beitar Jerusalem against 1.5 for AEK Larnaca. Beitar Jerusalem's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.66 for AEK Larnaca.