30 July 2026, 17:30 UTC

Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Teddy Stadium, Ploiesti
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Beitar Jerusalem 2-3 AEK Larnaca.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Beitar Jerusalem, 26% draw, 39% AEK Larnaca — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AEK Larnaca at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Beitar Jerusalem4%Draw92%AEK Larnaca4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
⚽H. Milicevic (pen)
⚽O. Atzili (pen)
45'
🔁J. Kaluout: E. Ansah
46'
46'
🔁A. Layouniout: G. Ekpolo
Noam Muche
49'
Brayan Carabalí
51'
52'
⚽H. Milicevic
🔁S. Weissmanout: T. Muzie
59'
Yarden Cohen
67'
Daniel Worko
69'
69'
🔁Miramonout: W. Rubio
69'
🔁Y. Gurfinkelout: K. Pileas
🔁N. Mucheout: Z. Ben Shimol
75'
🔁Y. Cohenout: L. Deri
75'
77'
🔁E. Saboritout: Z. Adoni
⚽O. Atziliassist: N. Antwi
87'
Yarden Shua
90+5'
🔁O. Atziliout: Y. Shua
90'
90'
🔁Ledes Gustavoout: D. Ivanovic
90'
⚽R. Bajic
94'
🔁I. Pankovout: C. Kyriakou
103'
Zacharias Adoni
105+1'
Godswill Ekpolo
🔁D. Workoout: N. Markovitch
111'
Nana Antwi
115'
118'
Hrvoje Miličević

Line-ups

Beitar Jerusalem 4-3-3
  • 55Miguel SilvaG
  • 2N. AntwiD
  • 4B. CarabaliD
  • 5G. CohenD
  • 16Y. CohenD
  • 15N. MucheM
  • 40Boris EnowM
  • 26D. WorkoM
  • 77O. AtziliF
  • 19S. WeissmanF
  • 9J. KaluF
Substitutes
  • 22Y. OzerG
  • 33D. NirG
  • 7Y. ShuaF
  • 8Z. Ben ShimolM
  • 11T. MuzieM
  • 13E. AnsahF
  • 14R. ElimelechD
  • 20O. DahanD
  • 24N. MarkovitchM
Coach: Almog Cohen
AEK Larnaca 4-2-3-1
  • 51A. ParaskevasG
  • 21MiramonM
  • 15H. MilicevicD
  • 4E. SaboritD
  • 13Y. GurfinkelD
  • 6I. PankovM
  • 7Ledes GustavoM
  • 14A. LayouniM
  • 20J. RepasM
  • 8Y. AmynM
  • 11R. BajicF
Substitutes
  • 1V. MufticG
  • 99D. DemetriouG
  • 9D. IvanovicM
  • 10W. RubioM
  • 17K. PileasD
  • 22G. EkpoloD
  • 25C. KyriakouM
  • 29G. NaoumM
  • 37D. GerasimouF
Coach: Mauro Camoranesi

Form going into Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca

Beitar Jerusalem

  • W1-0away to AEK Larnaca23 July 2026

AEK Larnaca

  • L0-1Beitar Jerusalem23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Beitar Jerusalem vs AEK Larnaca

  • 30 July 2026Beitar Jerusalem 1–1 AEK LarnacaUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 23 July 2026AEK Larnaca 0–1 Beitar JerusalemUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 22 July 2021Beitar Jerusalem 0–0 AEK LarnacaFriendlies Clubs
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.