30 July 2026, 16:00 UTC

Auda vs FCSB UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Skonto stadions, Riga
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Auda 4-1 FCSB.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Auda, 26% draw, 52% FCSB — fair odds of 4.55, 3.85 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: FCSB 2–3 Auda (23 Jul) →

Auda went through 7–3 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FCSB at 52% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Auda99%Draw1%FCSB0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

A. Arroyo
33'
34'
J. Dawa
⚽B. Diedhiouassist: E. Daskevics
45+2'
46'
🔁R. Radunovicout: Joao Paulo
46'
🔁V. Cretuout: A. Stoian
B. Diedhiou
46'
58'
⚽Joao Pauloassist: O. Popescu
🔁O. Rubenisout: S. Aranda
64'
🔁E. Daskevicsout: A. Appiah
66'
67'
🔁A. Boutoutaouout: M. Toma
⚽B. Diedhiou
67'
77'
🔁F. Tanaseout: E. Gnahore
🔁E. Bongembaout: M. Fofana
82'
Y. Traore
82'
⚽K. Koneassist: A. Appiah
84'
🔁B. Diedhiouout: R. Kragliks
86'
90+3'
O. Popescu
⚽T. Hrvoj
90+3'

Line-ups

Auda 4-3-3
  • 98Nils PurinsG
  • 2Tin HrvojD
  • 18Ariel ArroyoM
  • 4Moussa OuedraogoD
  • 71Oskars RubenisD
  • 8Edvin BongembaM
  • 20Youba TraoreM
  • 10Wally FofanaM
  • 17Eduards DaskevicsM
  • 47Kader KoneF
  • 25Barthelemy DiedhiouM
Substitutes
  • 80Sebastian ArandaD
  • 7Andrews AppiahF
  • 1Raivo SturinsG
  • 12Niks Daniels AleksandrovsG
  • 6Ralfs KragliksD
  • 46Jayen GeroldM
  • 77Jevgenijs MininsM
  • 14Hussaini IbrahimM
  • 23Mohamoud FofanaF
Coach: Didier Zanetti
FCSB 4-3-3
  • 32Ștefan TârnovanuG
  • 2Valentin CrețuD
  • 5Joyskim DawaD
  • 3André DuarteD
  • 4Ricardo PădurariuD
  • 28Aymen BoutoutaouM
  • 33Risto RadunovićD
  • 10Florin TănaseM
  • 31Juri CisottiM
  • 9Daniel BîrligeaF
  • 7Octavian PopescuM
Substitutes
  • 18João PauloM
  • 90Alexandru StoianF
  • 13Matei PopaG
  • 34Mihai UdreaG
  • 77Luca StancuD
  • 97Ronny LabonneD
  • 21Dylan BatubinsikaD
  • 8Eddy GnahoréM
  • 22Mihai TomaM
Coach: Marius Baciu

Form going into Auda vs FCSB

Auda

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2away to FCSB23 July 2026

FCSB

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Csikszereda26 July 2026
  • L2-3Auda23 July 2026
  • W2-0Arges Pitesti17 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Auda vs FCSB

  • 23 July 2026FCSB 2–3 AudaUEFA Europa Conference League

The result against the call

Auda beat FCSB 4–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FCSB at 52% and given a win for Auda 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: B. Diedhiou 45+2' for Auda, Joao Paulo 58' for FCSB, B. Diedhiou 67' for Auda, K. Kone 84' for Auda, T. Hrvoj 90+3' for Auda.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.