30 July 2026, 16:00 UTC

Auda vs FCSB UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Skonto stadions, Riga
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Auda 4-1 FCSB.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Auda, 26% draw, 52% FCSB — fair odds of 4.55, 3.85 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FCSB at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Auda99%Draw1%FCSB0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

A. Arroyo
33'
34'
J. Dawa
⚽B. Diedhiouassist: E. Daskevics
45+2'
46'
🔁R. Radunovicout: Joao Paulo
46'
🔁V. Cretuout: A. Stoian
B. Diedhiou
46'
58'
⚽Joao Pauloassist: O. Popescu
🔁O. Rubenisout: S. Aranda
64'
🔁E. Daskevicsout: A. Appiah
66'
67'
🔁A. Boutoutaouout: M. Toma
⚽B. Diedhiou
67'
77'
🔁F. Tanaseout: E. Gnahore
🔁E. Bongembaout: M. Fofana
82'
Y. Traore
82'
⚽K. Koneassist: A. Appiah
84'
🔁B. Diedhiouout: R. Kragliks
86'
90+3'
O. Popescu
⚽T. Hrvoj
90+3'

Line-ups

Auda 4-3-3
  • 98Nils PurinsG
  • 2Tin HrvojD
  • 18Ariel ArroyoM
  • 4Moussa OuedraogoD
  • 71Oskars RubenisD
  • 8Edvin BongembaM
  • 20Youba TraoreM
  • 10Wally FofanaM
  • 17Eduards DaskevicsM
  • 47Kader KoneF
  • 25Barthelemy DiedhiouM
Substitutes
  • 80Sebastian ArandaD
  • 7Andrews AppiahF
  • 1Raivo SturinsG
  • 12Niks Daniels AleksandrovsG
  • 6Ralfs KragliksD
  • 46Jayen GeroldM
  • 77Jevgenijs MininsM
  • 14Hussaini IbrahimM
  • 23Mohamoud FofanaF
Coach: Didier Zanetti
FCSB 4-3-3
  • 32Ștefan TârnovanuG
  • 2Valentin CrețuD
  • 5Joyskim DawaD
  • 3André DuarteD
  • 4Ricardo PădurariuD
  • 28Aymen BoutoutaouM
  • 33Risto RadunovićD
  • 10Florin TănaseM
  • 31Juri CisottiM
  • 9Daniel BîrligeaF
  • 7Octavian PopescuM
Substitutes
  • 18João PauloM
  • 90Alexandru StoianF
  • 13Matei PopaG
  • 34Mihai UdreaG
  • 77Luca StancuD
  • 97Ronny LabonneD
  • 21Dylan BatubinsikaD
  • 8Eddy GnahoréM
  • 22Mihai TomaM
Coach: Marius Baciu

Form going into Auda vs FCSB

Auda

  • W3-2away to FCSB23 July 2026

FCSB

  • W2-0away to Csikszereda26 July 2026
  • L2-3Auda23 July 2026
  • W2-0Arges Pitesti17 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Auda vs FCSB

  • 30 July 2026Auda 4–1 FCSBUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 23 July 2026FCSB 2–3 AudaUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Auda and FCSB

Auda

No leading scorers listed yet.

FCSB

  • D. Bîrligea3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.