Club Brugge KV
vs
St. Truiden
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Club Brugge KV 2–0 St. Truiden
The model makes it 70% Club Brugge KV, 18% draw, 12% St. Truiden — fair odds of 1.43, 5.56 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Club Brugge KV 2.83, St. Truiden 0.93.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Club Brugge KV are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Club Brugge KV are 2nd on 21 points from 8 games; St. Truiden are 12th on 8 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Club Brugge KV are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to RAAL La Louvière.
- St. Truiden are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to KV Mechelen.
- Last 6 meetings: Club Brugge KV 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Club Brugge KV 2–0 St. Truiden.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Brugge KV at 70% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden
Club Brugge KV
- W4-1away to RAAL La Louvière10 October 2026
- W3-0Genk20 September 2026
- W3-1Antwerp13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Lommel United4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Gent30 August 2026
St. Truiden
- L3-4away to KV Mechelen11 October 2026
- L0-2KVC Westerlo20 September 2026
- L0-2away to SK Beveren12 September 2026
- W4-0RAAL La Louvière5 September 2026
- L0-3Union St. Gilloise2 September 2026
What these results say
- Club Brugge KV scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Club Brugge KV won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Club Brugge KV had three goals or more.
- St. Truiden failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- St. Truiden conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 4 | +15 | 21 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Club Brugge KV
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 57% today
St. Truiden
Chance to finish in the top four · 5% today
From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden
- 9 May 2026Club Brugge KV 2–0 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 11 April 2026St. Truiden 1–2 Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro League
- 6 December 2025St. Truiden 3–2 Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro League
- 21 September 2025Club Brugge KV 2–0 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 15 February 2025St. Truiden 2–2 Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro League
- 23 November 2024Club Brugge KV 7–0 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden
Club Brugge KV
GoalsAssists
- H. Vetlesen40
- N. Tresoldi40
St. Truiden
GoalsAssists
- S. Baždar50
- R. Merlen34
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Club Brugge KV carry a model rating of 7.24 against 6.8 for St. Truiden. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.83 goals for Club Brugge KV and 0.93 for St. Truiden. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club Brugge KV rate 1.55 in attack and 0.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St. Truiden rate 1.02 and 1.13.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club Brugge KV a 57.2% chance of the title and St. Truiden 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Brugge KV the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.83 expected goals for Club Brugge KV against 0.93 for St. Truiden. Club Brugge KV's attack/defence rating is 1.55/0.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/1.13 for St. Truiden.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Club Brugge KV at home · St. Truiden away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Club Brugge KVSt. Truiden
Club Brugge KV are 1st after 8 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); St. Truiden are 12th after 8 (between 5th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Club Brugge KV 8, St. Truiden 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Club Brugge KV
- at Zulte Waregem30 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 57%
- at PSV Eindhoven4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 37%
- vs Anderlecht8 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 67%
- at KV Mechelen21 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 67%
St. Truiden
- vs OH Leuven1 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 54%
- vs Brann5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 55%
- vs Zulte Waregem8 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.