11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia First League prediction & result

Ticha, Varna
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Cherno More Varna 2-2 Lokomotiv Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Cherno More Varna, 26% draw, 42% Lokomotiv Sofia — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lokomotiv Sofia at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cherno More Varna6%Draw90%Lokomotiv Sofia4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽celso sidneyassist: georgi lazarov
6'
15'
Angel Lyaskov
34'
Krasimir Stanoev
⚽Idris·Bounaasassist: Mohamed Achi Bouakline
37'
45+3'
Bozhidar Katsarov
46'
🔁Ivan Yordanovout: Ryan Bidounga
46'
🔁Georgi Minchevout: Dimitar Kostadinov
46'
🔁Reyan Daskalovout: Antonio Miguel Tavares Eiro de Carvalho
Christian Tomov
57'
🔁celso sidneyout: Petar Dimitrov Andreev
58'
🔁Idris·Bounaasout: Ivan·Tasev
58'
61'
🔁caruzo caueout: Ante Aralica
Ventsislav Kerchev
62'
64'
⚽Ante Aralicaassist: Spas Delev
Asen Donchev
69'
77'
⚽Dimitar Kostadinovassist: Krasimir Stanoev
78'
🔁Kaloyan Kostovout: nikola neychev
🔁Petar Dimitrov Andreevout: Miguel barandas
79'
🔁Mohamed Achi Bouaklineout: Padilla Jorge
79'
🔁Ventsislav Kerchevout: bandaro joao
86'
87'
Ante Aralica
georgi lazarov
90+4'

Match stats — Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia

58%Possession42%
12Shots8
4On target3
9Corners5

Line-ups

Cherno More Varna 4-2-3-1
  • 81K. TomovG
  • 37V. KerchevD
  • 5L. SquadroneD
  • 3Z. AtanasovD
  • 8A. DonchevF
  • 24David TelesM
  • 99I. BounaasM
  • 10Celso SidneyF
  • 71V. PanayotovM
  • 11M. AchiM
  • 19G. LazarovF
Substitutes
  • 18P. AndreevM
  • 50E. TombakD
  • 14A. TodorovD
  • 17I. TasevF
  • 9J. PadillaF
  • 13E. NyagolovD
  • 22N. KostadinovM
  • 26João BandaróD
  • 31D. HristovG
Coach: Ilian Iliev
Lokomotiv Sofia 4-2-3-1
  • 99M. VelichkovG
  • 22R. DaskalovD
  • 3K. KostovD
  • 44B. KatsarovM
  • 14A. LyaskovD
  • 5E. DostM
  • 31K. StanoevM
  • 77Caue CaruzoF
  • 8I. YordanovM
  • 7S. DelevF
  • 9G. MinchevF
Substitutes
  • 11A. TaouiF
  • 29A. AralicaF
  • 91R. BidoungaD
  • 6EirôD
  • 20D. KostadinovM
  • 24A. LyubenovG
  • 16M. MedfaiM
  • 26K. MiloshevM
  • 42N. NeychevM
Coach: L. Penev

Form going into Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia

Cherno More Varna

  • L0-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv6 September 2026
  • L1-3away to CSKA Sofia30 August 2026
  • W3-1Dunav Ruse21 August 2026
  • L1-4away to CSKA 194814 August 2026

Lokomotiv Sofia

  • L1-2Ludogorets6 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Dunav Ruse31 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Arda Kardzhali17 August 2026
  • L1-3CSKA 19488 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Cherno More Varna91261019-95
13Lokomotiv Sofia80441016-64

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia

  • 11 September 2026Cherno More Varna 2–2 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
  • 22 November 2025Cherno More Varna 0–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
  • 18 July 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 3 December 2024Cherno More Varna 4–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
  • 4 August 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 2–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 4 April 2024Cherno More Varna 3–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.