Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Cherno More Varna 2-2 Lokomotiv Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Cherno More Varna, 26% draw, 42% Lokomotiv Sofia — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lokomotiv Sofia at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Line-ups
- 81K. TomovG
- 37V. KerchevD
- 5L. SquadroneD
- 3Z. AtanasovD
- 8A. DonchevF
- 24David TelesM
- 99I. BounaasM
- 10Celso SidneyF
- 71V. PanayotovM
- 11M. AchiM
- 19G. LazarovF
- 18P. AndreevM
- 50E. TombakD
- 14A. TodorovD
- 17I. TasevF
- 9J. PadillaF
- 13E. NyagolovD
- 22N. KostadinovM
- 26João BandaróD
- 31D. HristovG
- 99M. VelichkovG
- 22R. DaskalovD
- 3K. KostovD
- 44B. KatsarovM
- 14A. LyaskovD
- 5E. DostM
- 31K. StanoevM
- 77Caue CaruzoF
- 8I. YordanovM
- 7S. DelevF
- 9G. MinchevF
- 11A. TaouiF
- 29A. AralicaF
- 91R. BidoungaD
- 6EirôD
- 20D. KostadinovM
- 24A. LyubenovG
- 16M. MedfaiM
- 26K. MiloshevM
- 42N. NeychevM
Form going into Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Cherno More Varna
First League
- L0-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv6 September 2026
Lokomotiv Sofia
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Ludogorets6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Dunav Ruse31 August 2026
- L1-3away to Arda Kardzhali17 August 2026
- L1-3CSKA 19488 August 2026
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia31 July 2026
What these results say
- Lokomotiv Sofia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 9 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia
- 22 November 2025Cherno More Varna 0–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 18 July 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 3 December 2024Cherno More Varna 4–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 4 August 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 2–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 4 April 2024Cherno More Varna 3–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
Leading scorers: Cherno More Varna and Lokomotiv Sofia
Cherno More Varna
No player in First League's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Lokomotiv Sofia
GoalsAssists
- S. Delev11
- D. Kostadinov10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cherno More Varna and Lokomotiv Sofia drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Lokomotiv Sofia at 42% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: celso sidney 6' for Cherno More Varna, Idris·Bounaas 37' for Cherno More Varna, Ante Aralica 64' for Lokomotiv Sofia, Dimitar Kostadinov 77' for Lokomotiv Sofia. Sent off: Bozhidar Katsarov (Lokomotiv Sofia) 45+3'.
How the call on Cherno More Varna v Lokomotiv Sofia has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 34% / 27% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 32% / 26% / 42%: the biggest move is Lokomotiv Sofia's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Cherno More Varna win32%▼ −2
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Lokomotiv Sofia win42%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.