Farul Constanta vs Uta Arad Liga I prediction & result
Final score: Farul Constanta 4-2 Uta Arad.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Farul Constanta, 32% draw, 32% Uta Arad — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Farul Constanta at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Farul Constanta vs Uta Arad
Line-ups
- 12R. MunteanuG
- 24S. BouzamouchaD
- 5N. AberdinD
- 4Gustavo MarinsD
- 28C. SimaM
- 23T. NjikéM
- 70M. AhlinviM
- 11C. GaneaM
- 29A. GoncearF
- 7D. AlibecF
- 20E. RădăslăvescuF
- 6V. DicanM
- 13I. CercelD
- 1A. BuzbuchiG
- 33João FerreiraD
- 17I. LarieD
- 99Răzvan MarinceanF
- 80N. PopescuM
- 10E. SylvestreF
- 71R. TănasăF
- 1Márcio RosaG
- 2A. DorobanțuD
- 15P. OuanehD
- 4A. BengaD
- 72A. PadulaD
- 5S. MinoM
- 8A. RomanM
- 11H. AbdallahM
- 77J. PapeauM
- 20Denis TaroiM
- 9M. ComanF
- 6A. IvanovM
- 10M. TzionisF
- 7Ismet SinaniF
- 42O. El SawyM
- 14S. GueuletteM
- 33A. GorceaG
- 22R. BădescuD
Form going into Farul Constanta vs Uta Arad
Farul Constanta
- D0-0away to CFR 1907 Cluj4 September 2026
- D0-0FC Botosani30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Arges Pitesti14 August 2026
Uta Arad
- W5-1Csikszereda5 September 2026
- W3-1away to FCSB30 August 2026
- D0-0Corvinul Hunedoara22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Universitatea Cluj17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Farul Constanta | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 14 | Uta Arad | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Farul Constanta vs Uta Arad
- 11 September 2026Farul Constanta 4–2 Uta AradLiga I
- 26 April 2026Uta Arad 0–0 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 15 December 2025Farul Constanta 1–1 Uta AradLiga I
- 9 August 2025Uta Arad 2–1 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 10 May 2025Farul Constanta 1–2 Uta AradLiga I
- 20 January 2025Farul Constanta 1–1 Uta AradLiga I
Leading scorers: Farul Constanta and Uta Arad
Farul Constanta
- E. Rădăslăvescu5 goals2 assists
- M. Ahlinvi3 goals1 assists
- Iustin Doicaru3 goals1 assists
Uta Arad
- M. Coman4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.